Houston Astros Take Major Risk With Altuve Extension

The Houston Astros may regret locking up their franchise player.

The Houston Astros dropped a major bombshell on Tuesday night, locking up star second baseman Jose Altuve to a historic five-year, $125 million extension.

The new deal covers the 2025-2029 seasons, which will be Altuve's age 35-39 seasons. For the first three of those years, he will earn $30 million per season.

That's a lot of money to pay for what will likely be Altuve's decline phase.

It's no secret that ballplayers typically suffer a major drop-off in performance and become more injury-prone during their 30s, even elite ones like Altuve. Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto and Robinson Cano are just a few recent examples that come to mind.

Altuve hasn't shown any signs of statistical erosion yet, although he only played 90 games last year -- his lowest total in a non-pandemic season since 2011.

That's not a great sign for a player who's put a lot of wear and tear on his body at second base, where fielders frequently have to dive and are often taken out by sliding baserunners.

Altuve still had another year to go before becoming a free agent, so the Astros are taking a pretty significant gamble by signing him before they had to.

Extensions are great for players in their 20s when teams lock up the rest of their prime years. They're far more dangerous for players in their 30s who typically have nowhere to go but down.

This extension would be more palatable if Houston could at least DH Altuve regularly, but that's not really possible with Yordan Alvarez locked in there through 2028.

Altuve has done a ton for the Astros over the course of his career and has been the face of their franchise for over a decade. Houston has made a lot of smart baseball decisions during that time, but giving Altuve a lucrative retirement fund probably won't be one of them.