Houston Astros Yusei Kikuchi Replacement Predicted To Land Massive Contract

The Houston Astros should bring Yusei Kikuchi back if their target gets what the latest prediction suggested he would.

Sep 25, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi (16) prior to the game against the Seattle Mariners at Minute Maid Park. / Erik Williams-Imagn Images

Injuries for much of the campaign derailed the Houston Astros rotation. With multiple pending free agents, including left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, the Astros could face a potential problem in 2025 if things went how they did last season.

It's something to keep an eye on, and while general manager Dana Brown didn't sound worried about it, he might need to change his thinking.

If Houston wants to build a World Series contending team, they know better than anyone that it starts on the mound.

Losing Kikuchi wouldn't be the worst scenario. They moved a massive package for him at the deadline, so the logical thing to do would be to re-sign him, but if it doesn't happen and they replace him, it is what it is.

There are options out there. However, none might be as cheap as the left-hander.

Max Fried has been flirted as a potential target for the Astros. From a production standpoint, signing Fried makes perfect sense.

However, the left-hander was predicted to land a six-year, $174 million deal from Jim Bowden of The Athletic.

"Max Fried has a career record of 73-36 with a 3.07 ERA and 3.29 FIP. He’s made two All-Star teams, won two Gold Glove awards and finished top-five in the Cy Young Award voting twice. He’s made 28 to 30 starts in three of the last four seasons but has dealt with injuries, including left forearm neuritis each of the last two years. Therefore, his medical reports will determine whether he lands a market-rate deal or has to take a lesser contract. The Braves have tried over the last several years to extend Fried to no avail. They’ll keep trying this offseason and wait to see how he fares in the market, but they definitely want him back."

For a pitcher who's dealt with injuries over the past few campaigns, paying him nearly $200 million would raise some question marks.

Fried is elite, but his lack of availability is worrisome, especially with the other injuries Houston dealt with.

Kikuchi came in at three years and $42 million from Bowden, a significant difference.

Fried has been the much better arm throughout his career, so that doesn't come as much of a surprise.

However, paying him more than $100 million more, despite the years being significantly different, would be tough to justiry.

The Astros don't necessarily need an ace. They need guys who could eat innings, and Fried hasn't done that recently, so they might be better letting him sign elsewhere.