How Much Better Would Houston Astros Be If They Didn't Sign Jose Abreu?

Would the Houston Astros be better off if they spent Jose Abreu's money elsewhere?

Jun 5, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros first baseman Jose Abreu (79) reacts after a play during the fourth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Minute Maid Park. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros have clinched the American League West, as they have punched their ticket for October baseball. 

It has been an interesting season for the Astros, as despite a slow start, they have been able to overcome them and will be focused on another successful postseason. For seven straight years, Houston has been a representative for the American League in the Championship Series. 

This campaign, the Astros will once again be a contender, as they come into the playoffs with a good pitching staff and strong lineup. Arguably, the strength of Houston is going to be their pitching staff. Even though Justin Verlander might not be on the playoff roster, Houston has plenty of arms that have proved themselves throughout the year. 

One glaring issue coming into the postseason is going to be the outfield. Besides Kyle Tucker, production from the outfield this year has been limited, and the lineup for the Astros isn’t as deep as in years past. 

With outfielders being such an issue, Joel Reuter of Bleacher Report recently spoke about a ‘What If’ scenario where Houston spent the money they did on first baseman Jose Abreu to upgrade their outfield instead. 

“Finding two productive outfielders to pair with Kyle Tucker has been a struggle all season, and Tucker himself missed time to injury, so the Astros lineup might look significantly different if they had splurged on an outfielder rather than Abreu.”

Since signing with the Astros, Abreu’s production has really dropped. In 2023, Abreu hit .237 with 18 home runs and 90 RBIs. This campaign, he really saw his play fall off, as he batted just .124 in 35 games. 

Houston is paying the slugger close to $20 million per season, as he was expected to be a force in the middle of the order. Despite having 90 RBIs last year, Abreu’s WAR was 0.0 and his oWAR was only 0.1. 

Considering he was a bit of a non-factor even last season, the thought of that $20 million going to an outfielder or two could have really helped. With another year left on his contract, signing the now 37-year-old was a rare failure for the organization. 

As Houston gets ready for October, having Abreu from earlier in his career would have really made this lineup a force to be reckoned with. Unfortunately, the Astros won’t have as scary of a lineup because of the decline of the veteran slugger.