Inside the Astros

Is Houston Astros Superstar Free Agent on Hall of Fame Trajectory?

After a strong start to his career with the Houston Astros, is Alex Bregman on the path to Cooperstown?

Tyler Maher

Oct 2, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros third base Alex Bregman runs after hitting a single against the Detroit Tigers.
Oct 2, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros third base Alex Bregman runs after hitting a single against the Detroit Tigers. / Thomas Shea-Imagn Images
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With the MLB offseason just starting to heat up, it's still unclear where Alex Bregman will end up next year.

Looking further ahead, will the Houston Astros third baseman eventually end up in Cooperstown?

After nine seasons with the Astros, Bregman's career is already off to a Hall of Fame start.

He just finished his age-30 season and already has 1,132 hits, 191 home runs, a .272/.366/.483 batting line and 39.6 WAR.

Bregman's also accumulated plenty of personal accolades and postseason success, including two All-Star appearances, a Gold Glove, a Silver Slugger, two top-five MVP finishes and two World Series rings.

If he keeps it up throughout his 30s, Bregman could finish with over 2,000 hits, 300 homers and 60 WAR, which would definitely put him in the Cooperstown conversation.

One potential hiccup with Bregman is that he may have peaked too soon and could already be on the decline.

His two best seasons happened before his 26th birthday, and he's settled into more of a very good player rather than a perennial All-Star/MVP candidate since then.

Bregman is coming off the lowest OPS (.768) of his career -- a troubling sign as he enters his 30s. He also lost over a full season's worth of games due to Covid and injuries in 2020 and 2021.

Right now, Bregman's career looks a lot like Evan Longoria's.

Longoria peaked early with the Tampa Bay Rays but fell off after joining the San Francisco Giants in his 30s. He had a nice career, but probably isn't getting a plaque in Cooperstown.

It's impossible to know how Bregman's career will turn out, but he should be fine wherever he lands.

His road OPS (.850) is actually a bit higher than his home OPS (.846), so he may not miss Minute Maid Park too much.

Bregman's off to a promising start and laid the foundation for a Hall of Fame career in his 20s, but he'll need to cement it in his 30s.

He hasn't done enough yet, so he'll need to keep producing in the second half of his career (like Jose Altuve has) to strengthen his case.

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Tyler Maher
TYLER MAHER

Tyler grew up in Massachusetts and is a huge Boston sports fan, especially the Red Sox. He went to Tufts University and played club baseball for the Jumbos. Since graduating, he has worked for MLB.com, The Game Day, FanDuel and Forbes. When he's not writing about baseball, he enjoys running, traveling, and playing fetch with his golden retriever.

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