Inside the Astros

Is Recent Win Projection Model Too Optimistic on Houston Astros?

The latest projection model is slightly more optimistic on the outlook for the Houston Astros than others released in the runup to the 2025 season.

Kyle Morton

Feb 14, 2025; West Palm Beach, FL, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez (59) plays catch during a spring training workout at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches.
Feb 14, 2025; West Palm Beach, FL, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez (59) plays catch during a spring training workout at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
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The Houston Astros saw their run of appearing in seven consecutive American League Championship Series come to an end in 2024, but the team still won the AL West division title the year after the Texas Rangers took the World Series.

Along with the Seattle Mariners, the two teams that reside in Texas figure to be the ones in contention to win the division and set themselves up for a playoff run in 2025.

But there are quite a few complicating factors for the Astros.

Houston's stacked core from the 2017 and 2022 World Series titles and 2019 runner-up finish dwindle significantly. The only core players remaining from those teams are Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Lance McCullers Jr.

This offseason saw the departures of fan favorite third baseman Alex Bregman in free agency to the Boston Red Sox, and the perennially elite outfielder Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs via trade.

It comes as no surprise, then, that most popular projection models have the Astros falling just short of the truly elite echelon of teams in 2025.

PECOTA gives them only a 28.4% chance to win the division with a simulated average record of 87.4-74.6, roughly three games behind where it puts the Rangers.

PECOTA, however, is not the only major projection model released before the season.

ESPN recently released its own findings this week, and those are a bit more optimistic about the outcome of Houston's season.

Those have the Astros winning 88 games on average, which is only slightly higher than PECOTA, but have been given a 66.6% chance to make the playoffs. ESPN is lower on Texas, with Houston finishing 0.3 games ahead of its in-state rivals.

"Houston's baseline entering a season hasn't been this low in 10 years," Bradford Doolittle wrote. "You lose Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Justin Verlander from a roster and the forecasting machinery isn't going to like it.

While it's true that this is not an overly lofty projection for the Astros, it does not really represent the decline one might expect from those losses.

The same projection system had Houston at 90.6 projected wins last year before the team ultimately went 88-73 when they didn't play its regular season finale against the Cleveland Guardians due to rain and its irrelevancy to the final standings.

The optimism implied in this projection probably lies in the likelihood that the Astros could not possibly suffer as badly from pitching injuries as it did in 2024.

They are getting effective starters Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia back from Tommy John surgery at some point, and McCullers Jr. looks ready to re-join the rotation relatively quickly as well.

If that trio can get healthy and stay healthy, Houston could absolutely pitch well enough to repeat as division champions, even if the lineup looks weaker on paper than it has at any point in the past eight years.

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Kyle Morton
KYLE MORTON

Kyle Morton has covered various sports from amateur to professional level athletics. A graduate of Fordham University, Kyle specializes in MLB and NHL coverage while having previous bylines with SB Nation, The Hockey Writers, HighSchoolOT, and Sports World News. He spent time working the beat for the NHL's Carolina Hurricanes and is an avid fan of the NHL, MLB, NFL and college basketball. Enjoys the outdoors and hiking in his free time away from sports.

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