Josh Hader’s Contract Could Become Problematic for Houston Astros Soon

Will the Houston Astros come to regret Josh Hader's contract?

Oct 2, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros pitcher Josh Hader (71) throws against the Detroit Tigers during the eighth inning of game two of the Wildcard round for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Minute Maid Park. / Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros had a disappointing 2024 by their standards, as for the first time in seven years, they were unable to reach the American League Championship Series. 

After being eliminated by the Detroit Tigers in the Wild Card Round, the Astros will now be focused on an important offseason. 

This winter, the biggest decision for Houston will be regarding what they will decide to do with their star third baseman, Alex Bregman. The slugger is going to be one of the most sought after free agents this offseason, and the Astros are going to have to make a large financial commitment to him in order to keep him. 

Last offseason, the Astros made a surprising splash in free agency, as they signed closer Josh Hader to a five-year, $95 million deal. Hader has been considered to be one of the best closers in the league for some time, but his first season with the Astros was mediocre.

Recently, Zachary D. Rymer of Bleacher Report spoke about some contracts that could become nightmares for teams and Hader’s was mentioned. 

"As for how much the Astros should be worried, the answer is between "a little bit" and "very." Though Hader was mostly effective in 2024, he still isn't striking guys out like he did between 2018 and 2022. His fastball velocity and whiff rate likewise aren't what they used to be. Such maladies eventually come for all hard-throwing relievers, and it also feels appropriate to play a hunch with Hader's physical wellbeing. His run of having never gone on the IL with an actual injury is frankly unsustainable.”

In 2024, Hader totaled 34 saves, 105 strikeouts, but a concerning 3.80 ERA. For a closer making nearly $20 million per season, an ERA near four is very worrisome, and it was his consistency that was really an issue. 

Some months, Hader looked like the best closer in the league and then in other months he looked like he shouldn’t be a closer at all. 

For an Astros team that has some key players hitting free agency this offseason and next winter, there might be some buyers regret after one season. Money that is going to the southpaw could likely have been allocated to Alex Bregman this offseason, or potentially Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez next winter. 

While Hader can certainly have a much better second season in Houston, the contract as of now looks like one that they may regret.