MLB Analyst Makes Compelling Case Why Astros Will Win AL West Again in 2025

An MLB analyst and podcaster explains why the Houston Astros will repeat as division champs in 2025.

Tyler Maher | Mar 26, 2025

Mar 16, 2025; Port St. Lucie, Florida, USA; Houston Astros catcher Yainer Diaz (21) and right fielder Cam Smith (90) celebrate after scoring on a two run home run. / Reinhold Matay-Imagn Images

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Houston Astros

For nearly a decade, the Houston Astros have dominated the AL West. They've won the division seven times in the last eight years, with their only miss coming during the COVID-shortened 2020 season.

The Astros are shooting for a fifth-straight division title in 2025, but it won't be easy. The talented Texas Rangers look poised to bounce back from a disappointing 2024, while the pitching-rich Seattle Mariners have their sights set on first place as well.

Meanwhile, Houston is a team in transition after losing Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Justin Verlander this offseason, muddying its outlook for 2025.

Despite the competition and roster turnover, MLB analyst and podcaster Ben Verlander (Justin's brother) believes the Astros will still finish at the top of the standings again this year, sharing a video explanation of his prediction on X.

The ceiling is higher for the Rangers.

But the floor is far higher for the Astros.

Give me the ‘Stros in ‘25 https://t.co/rmDFwOP9Sv
— Ben Verlander (@BenVerlander) March 24, 2025

"The lineup is still great. You still have Jose Altuve. You still have Yordan Alvarez. Christian Walker is a massive upgrade at first base," Verlander said, though he acknowledged the loss of Tucker "does hurt."

One of the main reasons Verlander favors Houston this year is top prospect Cam Smith, who came over from the Chicago Cubs in the Tucker trade. Smith has been tearing up spring training and has AL Rookie of the Year potential if the Astros bring him up this season.

The 22-year-old could give Houston a major boost this season and make a great lineup even better.

Verlander also likes the Astros' pitching staff, which should be deeper than last year.

"They have a really solid rotation. I think it's better than the Rangers' rotation over the course of 162 (games)," he said, citing Houston's starting pitching depth with Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti and Hayden Wesneski.

Lance McCullers and Luis Garcia are also coming back from injury after missing the entire 2024 season and could rejoin the rotation at some point.

In Verlander's view, the AL West will be a "two-team race" between the Astros and Rangers. While the Mariners have plenty of arms and led the AL in ERA (3.49) last year, he doesn't think they have the bats to keep up after ranking 21st in MLB in scoring last year.

"The Texas Rangers' ceiling is the highest (in the division). The Astros have the highest floor," Verlander said. "With all the question marks that the Rangers have, I don't think all of those are going to be answered. There's too many question marks..."

Texas might be more talented than Houston on paper if its stars are healthy. That's a big if, however, given that most of the Rangers' best players (Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi) are either in their 30s or have significant injury histories.

After beating the Astros in the ALCS and winning the World Series in 2023, Texas crashed to 78-84 last year. Houston hasn't had a losing record over a full season since 2014, validating Verlander's assessment that the Astros have a higher floor than the Rangers.

"(Houston) is still good enough to win the American League West...I do think the Houston Astros are going to ultimately win the division once again," Verlander said, adding that the Astros could win the AL pennant if Smith steps up and contributes right away.

Based on how the last few years have gone, there's little reason to doubt him.

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