MLB Writer Not High on Houston Astros to Make Run in AL Wild Card Race

An MLB writer does not give the Houston Astros great odds of earning one of the American League wild card spots.

Jul 28, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros manager Joe Espada (19) takes the game ball from Houston Astros pitcher Seth Martinez (61) during the seventh inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Minute Maid Park. / Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Astros made one of the biggest moves ahead of the 2024 MLB trade deadline last week. They acquired left-handed starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi from the Toronto Blue Jays for an exorbitant price.

Right-handed starting pitcher Jake Bloss, outfielder Joey Loperfido and infielder Will Wagner were traded to acquire the former All-Star. It was a deal panned by many in the industry, feeling as if the Astros paid way too much.

When taking into account what other starting pitchers were traded for ahead of the deadline, it would be hard to argue that point. The Los Angeles Dodgers didn’t trade nearly as much for Jack Flaherty, who has been performing at a much higher level than Kikuchi.

Like Flaherty, Kikuchi is also a rental. Along with Kikuchi, Houston added left-handed reliever Caleb Ferguson in a deal with the New York Yankees.

It was clear what their plans ahead of the deadline were, as they wanted to reinforce the pitching staff. Will that be enough to make a run at a playoff spot? Writer David Schoenfield of ESPN doesn’t believe so.

Schoenfield recently put together a piece ranking each of the wild card contenders in the National and American Leagues. In the AL, five teams were ranked and he placed the Astros last.

“Give the Astros credit for clawing back into the AL West race after falling 10 games back on June 18. Indeed, winning the division remains their most likely path to the playoffs. It was kind of a strange deadline for the Astros, overpaying for a mediocre starter in Kikuchi and not adding a bat at first base or the outfield. They have a couple tough road trips ahead: a nine-game trip that starts Monday to Texas, Boston and Tampa Bay and a seven-game trip to Baltimore and Philadelphia later in the month,” Schoenfield wrote.

Clawing back in the fashion they did is no small feat. When Houston started their run, many people were hypothesizing that the front office would be selling off pieces by the time the deadline rolled around.

That ended up not being the case, but there is plenty of work remaining to earn a playoff spot. The schedule will not be in their favor, as they are at a huge disadvantage when compared to their competition in the AL.

Schoenfield believes that the best route to a playoff spot for the Astros is through the AL West. A massive series against the Seattle Mariners looms that will go a long way in determining who will wear the divisional crown.

“The Astros have one series left against the Seattle Mariners -- who currently sit atop the division -- and need to sweep that to win the season series (and own the tie-breaker). Both the Astros and Mariners look flawed enough that I do expect the final two wild-card spots to come down to the Minnesota/Kansas City/Boston trio, but the Astros usually figure out a way. They'll edge out Seattle for the AL West title -- in what may very well end up being the last gasp for this era that has seen them reach seven straight ALCS,” wrote Schoenfield.

It is hard to bet against the Astros given their recent track record. They have always found a way to not only make the postseason, but advance. Alas, that streak of ALCS appearances certainly looks to be in jeopardy this season.