One Number Explains Astros' Need To Trade For Starting Pitcher

The Houston Astros may need to trade for a starting pitcher at the deadline and one number explains why.

Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports

Framber Valdez started for the Houston Astros on Wednesday against Washington. Cristian Javier started on Thursday night. 

When either starts, good things tend to happen.

The Astros won Valdez's start, 5-4, with Valdez throwing seven innings of five-hit baseball, during which he gave up a run and struck out six.

Javier and the Astros lost on Thursday night, 4-1, in 10 innings. Javier did his job, throwing six scoreless innings. 

In spite of the split, this lines up with a particular data point that's held steady this season. 

When Valdez or Cristian Javier start, the Astros are 18-10. When another pitcher starts the Astros are 21-20.

The numbers without Valdez and Javier on the mound are solid. But the duo are clear difference-makers in this battered rotation.

If the Astros (39-30) are to make a push for the playoffs and to catch the Texas Rangers in the American League West, that disparity may be the single biggest reason Houston needs to trade for a starting pitcher before the trade deadline on Aug. 1.

As if Lance McCullers Jr.’s season-ending surgery didn’t make it clear enough.

Yes, rookie Hunter Brown is having a great year — 6-3 with a 3.35 ERA. But that just skews the numbers for the other three spots in the rotation.

Between Brandon Bielak, J.P. France and José Urquidy — who is currently on the injured list — they’re a combined 7-6 in their decisions. Add in Luis Garcia, who is out for the season and went 2-2, and it’s 9-8.

The Astros have a choice. They can try to make things work with what they have to try to make a move for a quality starter at the deadline. The Astros might need to do the latter in order to avoid potential valleys between the starts of Valdez and Javier.

General manager Dana Brown has already made it clear the Astros will be buyers at the trade deadline. He’s more focused on a bat, based on comments earlier this month.

But that one data point — wins and losses — points to the need for one more starter at the deadline. 

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