Reevaluating a Houston Astros Prediction That Almost Came True

The Houston Astros didn't have the season anyone was expecting, but this major prediction was nearly spot on.

Sep 24, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros right fielder Kyle Tucker (30) rounds the bases after hitting a home run against the Seattle Mariners in the fourth inning at Minute Maid Park. / Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros 2024 season didn't go down like anyone expected it to, but one preseason prediction almost came to fruition.

Before the year began, ESPN's baseball staff made a list of predictions for each team as a part of their season preview programming. For the Astros, David Schoenfield came up with a guess for how Kyle Tucker's season would turn out.

"Only five position players have had at least 5.0 bWAR each of the past three seasons, and Tucker is one of them." said Schoenfield. "This year, he adds to that with his best season yet by posting a career-high 6.8 WAR, going 30/30 for the first time and improving upon last year's fifth-place finish in AL MVP voting."

For the first few months of the year, it felt as though this was going to be a lock.

Over the first 60 games of the season, the slugger had piled up a staggering 19 home runs and a solid 10 stolen bases. He had already accounted for 3.2 WAR. He was also projected to be squarely in the MVP race at the time.

That all changed when the 27-year-old fouled a ball off of his shin and created a whole world of problems for himself and the medical staff.

Initially, the injury was called a shin contusion. After months of being out, much longer than anyone expected, it was then revealed that it was a small fracture instead.

The fiasco forced him to miss the next 79 games of the year and gave him only 18 games to catch up to what the prediction had set for him.

He put up a good fight, picking up right where he left off before the injury. Over his final 18 games of the year, he posted a .365/.453/.587 slashing line with four home runs. Given the leg injury, it's not shocking that he only stole one more base to end the season.

All in all, the prediction can be considered successful because he still had a career year. It's a shame that no one will know what he could have done if he had stayed healthy.

Using on-pace stats, over 157 games (what he played last season), he would have theoretically hit for around 46 home runs and stolen 24 bases. That puts him way over for homers and behind on stolen bases, but that number was heavily affected by the leg injury over the final stretch.

If Houston can get a full season of Tucker playing at this level, an MVP could very well be in the cards.