Should Houston Astros Leave Struggling Superstar Off Postseason Roster?

The Houston Astros may not be able to trust Justin Verlander in October.

Sep 8, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander walks on the field before a game. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The MLB playoffs start less than three weeks from today, and the postseason picture is starting to take shape.

While several teams are still jockeying for the best overall record, or trying to make up ground in the Wild Card races, the Houston Astros are in pretty good shape.

Despite losing their last two games against the Oakland Athletics, they hold a 3.5-game lead over the Seattle Mariners in the AL West with 17 contests remaining.

According to FanGraphs' playoff odds, the Astros have a 93% chance of winning the division and a 94% chance of making the postseason.

Assuming that happens, Houston will soon be playing in short playoff series.

One potential issue, however, is that the Astros currently have a six-man rotation comprised of Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Yusei Kikuchi, Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco and Justin Verlander.

Obviously, Houston doesn't need that many starting pitchers and will need to trim the fat somewhere.

Unfortunately for Verlander, he may be the odd man out.

Will Justin Verlander make the Astros Postseason roster?#MLBNowShowdown pic.twitter.com/sIlOtbS7kU

— MLB Now (@MLBNow) September 10, 2024

After two decades of sustained excellence, Verlander is mired in the worst season of his career. The 41-year-old has been both hurt and ineffective, which is never a good combination for a baseball player.

In 14 starts, Verlander is 3-6 with a 5.30 ERA. That would be his highest ERA since 2005, when he had a 7.15 mark over the first two starts of his career.

It's not a fluke, either, as most of his peripherals are trending in the wrong direction.

His walk rate is up, his strikeout rate is down, and his home run rate is the highest it's ever been outside of 2020. His velocity is down, too, and hitters are crushing him to the tune of a .270/.331/.454 batting line.

Verlander has shown no signs of turning things around, either.

Over his last four starts, the three-time Cy Young winner is 0-4 with a 9.68 ERA and a .928 opponent OPS.

Barring a miraculous return to form over his next few starts, Verlander has become unusable, especially in high-leverage situations. Hall of Fame track record aside, he doesn't seem to be an effective pitcher anymore and can't be trusted with a championship at stake.

Verlander's been great in the playoffs before (17-12, 3.58 ERA), but that doesn't matter if he can't get batters out.

Unless the two-time World Series champ is willing to move to the bullpen for the first time in his MLB career and be content with riding the bench, he might not have a role in October.