Should Houston Astros Part Ways With Fading Superstar?

The Houston Astros have a tough decision to make with Alex Bregman.

Sep 8, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman reacts after a play. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

After failing to win a playoff game for the first time since 2016, the Houston Astros have some tough decisions to make this winter.

The biggest one revolves around what to do with star third baseman Alex Bregman. Not only is Bregman a free agent, but he's also represented by super-agent Scott Boras.

That means the Astros will need to pay through the nose to retain Bregman -- likely much more than they spent on his five-year, $100 million contract extension that just ended.

Should Houston keep him? Or spend its money elsewhere?

On one hand, Bregman has been remarkably consistent over the last three years, producing between four and five WAR each season. That's All-Star-caliber production,

A two-time All-Star and World Series champ, he's been durable and productive while emerging as a leader in the clubhouse. He even just won his first Gold Glove award.

No wonder the Astros' front office wants to keep him around.

Astros GM Dana Brown told reporters that he thinks the team has a good chance in bringing back 3B Alex Bregman pic.twitter.com/zzMKJOY7w7

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) November 5, 2024

However, there are signs that the 30-year-old is slipping at the plate. His strikeout rate ticked up for the second straight year, climbing to 13.6% -- his highest full-season rate since his sophomore campaign in 2017.

Meanwhile, his walk rate cratered in 2024, tumbling from 12.7% in 2023 to 6.9% and tying the lowest mark of his career.

Bregman's batted ball data is concerning as well, revealing a rise in ground balls and a decrease in fly balls in 2024.

These are all worrisome trends for a player who's going to be 31 next year. In addition to losing his strike zone recognition, he's also hitting the ball with less authority.

Players naturally decline as they age, so Bregman's production may continue to worsen as he gets deeper into his 30s. His 2024 season may not have been just a down year -- it may have been the start of a trend.

Accordingly, this seems like a good time for the AL West champions to part ways with Bregman, just as they did from George Springer after 2020. Let another team pay for the decline phase of his career

Bregman is still a good player, but he may not be one for much longer. Signing him to a long-term contract is too risky at this stage of his career.

They've had a good run together, but it's time for Houston to move on, even if it means losing him to a top rival like the New York Yankees.