Teams Warned About Bust Potential of Both Houston Astros Free Agent

The Houston Astros have two free agent pitchers this offseason who could be disastrous signings.

Sep 20, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) motions to the crowd while walking to the dugout after a pitching change in the fifth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Minute Maid Park. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros have two free agent pitchers who could make the team that signs them either very happy or very sad.

Yusei Kikuchi and Justin Verlander enter the offseason coming off different campaigns, but both have teams skeptical ahead of next year.

As Tim Kelly of Bleacher Report looked at the nine MLB free agents with the highest bust potential, both Astros pitchers found themselves on the list.

Verlander makes the most sense as someone team's should avoid signing, given his age and how poorly he played last season amidst tons of injury issues.

He will be 42 next year and is coming off of the worst performances of his career when he posted a 5.48 ERA with a 1.384 WHIP.

It's not like he lost control of his pitches, since he still doesn't walk many batters, but he just didn't have the same success.

Batters figured him out early and often.

He is just two years removed from his third career Cy Young Award, but regression can hit that fast. There is no telling what level he will be performing at next season, but it likely won't be too far removed from this year's performance.

The Astros have reportedly kicked around the idea of bringing him back, which might be the best case scenario for him. It would be a cheap deal and expectations would be low. His presence in the dugout might pay for itself depending on how he approaches a potentially reduced role.

Kikuchi pitched so well after Houston traded for him that his placement on this list might be confusing, but he was struggling a lot before the change.

In his 22 outings before the trade, he had a 4.75 ERA. He was getting a lot of strikeouts, but batters were hitting him with ease. His WHIP was up to 1.340.

That's kind of the pitcher he had been since coming to the United States back in 2018. He was an ace in Japan but was more of a backend starter in MLB. His career averages were a 4.71 ERA and 1.383 WHIP.

The Astros pitching staff made some adjustments, though, and he quickly became a dominant pitcher.

Houston won the first nine Kikuchi outings off the back of his quality pitching. Over the final 10 starts of the year, his numbers dropped to a 2.70 ERA with a 0.933 WHIP. He even ticked is strikeouts up a bit.

If he can keep those adjustments and continue his success, he'll be a home run signing, but there is always a good chance he reverts back, though.