This Adjustment Has Yusei Kikuchi Dealing with Houston Astros

Houston Astros starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi has turned his performance around in large part to this one adjustment.

Aug 7, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi (16) pitches against the Texas Rangers during the first inning at Globe Life Field. / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

When it was announced that the Houston Astros had acquired Yusei Kikuchi from the Toronto Blue Jays, many people panned the deal. The Astros surrendered three quality prospects in the swap, which was considered a massive overpay.

It was easy to see why analysts and fans would feel that way. Taking a look at Kikuchi’s raw statistics, his performance was nothing special. In 22 starts with the Blue Jays, he went 4-9 with a 4.75 ERA.

In addition to the rough stats, Kikuchi is a rental set to hit free agency this upcoming offseason. When taking into consideration what the Los Angeles Dodgers sent to the Detroit Tigers in exchange for Jack Flaherty, the Houston deal makes even less sense.

But, the front office and scouting departments did their homework. They saw something with Kikuchi they believed they would be able to use to help turn his performance around.

In the early going, the Astros’ braintrust seems to have been correct. Kikuchi has made two starts; against the Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers. Houston came away with much-needed victories in both contests.

Against the Rays in his debut, Kikuchi pitched 5.2 innings, allowing only two runs. He went on a remarkable stretch between the third and fifth innings when he struck out eight consecutive batters, a franchise record.

“It was so good,” Houston manager Joe Espada said after the victory. “Everything he was throwing out there, he just had them so off balance. That’s exactly what you want to do. When you have an offense on their heels, you are in control of that at-bat. You don’t want their offense to be in control. He had control of that game from the second inning on.”

Against the Rangers, Kikuchi pitched 5.1 innings, allowing two runs and striking out eight more batters. What has led to the improved performance?

Stuff has never been a question for the former All-Star. He is oozing with talent in that department, but control has been an issue at times during his career.

Bouts of wildness have not totally disappeared with the Astros, as he has walked six players. But he is making it work because of an adjustment to his pitch sequence and selection.

“...His command has always been the question mark, so his reduced curveball usage in Houston has made sense. His last two games have seen some of his heavier sustained changeup usage despite his lack of command on the pitch, but he’s looked the part of a high-stuff, iffy-command, strikeout pitcher so far…” Eno Sarris of The Athletic wrote.

That slight adjustment has resulted in Kikuchi’s raw statistics looking more similar to his advanced stats. In Toronto, the advanced stats hinted at him being a little unlucky. 

Houston bet that would be the case and that his numbers would regress to the mean. Through two starts, they have won that bet and he has helped them win two crucial games.