Predicting the Houston Astros ALDS Roster

The Houston Astros have roster decisions to make ahead of the American League Divisional Series. Who will make the cut?

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After a first-round bye, the time has come to finish up a roster plan for the American League Division Series. Similar to years past, the Houston Astros could opt for a deeper bench rather than a complete pitching staff.

A best-of-five series leaves the Astros ability to drop a pitcher — given a full pitching rotation isn’t needed — for another position player. Last season, Houston kept all three of its center fielders, having José Siri available off the bench as a pinch runner of late-game defensive replacement in addition to Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers manning the position.

This year, the Astros could follow the same path with Meyers, who was recalled in the final week of the season after a month’s hiatus in Triple-A Sugar Land. But to start off the prediction, let’s take a look at the pitching staff.

Starting pitchers: Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr. and Cristian Javier

Unlike last year, the pitching staff is deep. Seven starters makes cases to see extended outings, but of those, Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr. and Cristian Javier make the best case to follow Justin Verlander after Game 1.

Last October, McCullers pitched Game 1 and Game 4 on limited rest to secure a path to the American League Championship Series. That’s not needed this year. There’s little room for error, but Verlander won’t be needed to pitch Game 4 on four days rest, unless the Astros are on the brink of elimination in the series.

The point is the Astros rotation is deep. That’s been known all season in response to injury. And if Game 4 is forced, Javier stands the test, entering the postseason with a 0.32 ERA over his last five starts. Totaling 28.1 innings pitched, the righty struck out 37 batters to eight walks.

Bullpen: Ryan Pressly, Ryne Stanek, José Urquidy, Rafael Montero, Héctor Neris, Will Smith, Bryan Abreu and Hunter Brown

With a rotation down a pitcher, the bullpen can hold its regular eight. And for the best corp in the American League, it’ll come down to matchups and splits to see who is left off in the first round for Houston.

There are obvious locks for the bullpen in Ryan Pressly, Ryne Stanek, Rafael Montero and Héctor Neris that leave room for others to vie for seats this past week. And of those long-relief options, José Urquidy was bullpen tested prior to the end of the season.

It didn’t goes as planned though. Urquidy surrendered three home runs to the Philadelphia Phillies — who clinched a postseason berth the same night. But in comparison to Luis García, Urquidy has been the better pitcher in 2022 while also holding more reliable postseason experience.

It comes down to who the Astros see more fit as a piggyback pitcher and if they stick to the mold of a 12-man staff. And if the plan is to choose one of the two, Urquidy is the safer bet even though his season totals reside slightly worse than that of García.

Hunter Brown also falls under the category, although he may not see outings extend longer than three innings. The rookie made a case to contribute in the postseason, allowing just two earned runs through a month of play. But the Astros could pick two of the three previously listed as long relievers, depending on the best matchups.

Bryan Abreu and Will Smith could round out the bullpen options, if the front office sticks to traditional arms. But Phil Maton — whose season ERA isn’t anything to write home about — was on a 12 consecutive appearance streak of not allowing a run to score from Aug. 25-Sept. 24. While originally listed, Maton would likely be left off if it came down to he and Abreu.

But for Smith’s case, he’s made 24 appearances since his acquisition, totaling 24 strikeouts in 22 innings pitched. Holding lefties to a .637 OPS on the year, Smith quietly improved his season after a rough three quarters with the Atlanta Braves.

The Mariners rostered four lefty hitters and three switch hitters for the Wild Card round which may entice the front office to roster Smith, pleasing manger Dusty Baker’s need of a lefty in the bullpen.

Catchers: Martín Maldonado and Christian Vázquez

Infielders: Yuli Gurriel, Trey Mancini, José Altuve, Alex Bregman and Jeremy Peña

Obviously, Trey Mancini won’t see his most action at first base in October play, but the righty provides versatility in left field, too. Mancini could rotate between the two positions and even at designated hitter, pending if Yordan Álvarez starts in left field.

Outfielders: Yordan Álvarez, Chas McCormick, Kyle Tucker and Jake Meyers

As mentioned near the top, this is where Meyers could find his role with the Major League club again. While he could provide speed on the bass paths, Meyers’ defense bodes well for a late-game replacement in center field, moving McCormick to left.

Utility: Aledmys Díaz, Mauricio Dubón and David Hensley

The beauty of a roster holding 14 position players is the ability to flash versatility. And for the Astros’ case, these three each provide enough versatility to backup every position that’s not catcher.

It will come down to how many pitchers Houston carries to influence the bench, and if the Astros abandon the idea of carrying 12 arms and resort to 13, one of Dubón or Hensley would likely be dropped.

Dubón — whose exit from San Francisco came down to his loss of options — has been on the active roster since he was acquired in May. While his versatility his justified, his bat is not, and the rookie Hensley showed unmatched discipline over the last month to take a roster spot from Dubón in the case of a regular bench. 

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