The Oakland A's Are Better Than You Think

Jason Burke | Apr 12, 2024

Apr 9, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Oakland Athletics catcher Shea Langeliers (23) in the dugout / Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

The Oakland A's went on the road for the first time this season and took two of three in Detroit, and followed that up by taking two-of-three from the defending World Series champions in Texas. Thursday's game included left-handed starter JP Sears taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning, and closer Mason MIller averaging 102.3 miles per hour on his fastball to secure the winning trip in the A's 1-0 over the Rangers.

The A's return to their current home 5-8, and if you're scouting for playoff tickets, they're only two games back in the AL West. Last season the A's didn't win their fifth game until April 24, and the victory put them at 5-18. They ended up winning six games in March/April and six games in May. Of course the season could fall off the rails again, but this team has a different feel that last year's 112-loss club.

As we enter play on Friday, the A's are tied with the Seattle Mariners at 5-8 in the West, and 1.5 games up on the Houston Astros (4-10). That's the good news.

The bad news is that the A's still have a -22 run differential thanks to three one-run wins. Only the 2-10 Chicago White Sox have a worse run differential in the American League at -29. That said, the Mariners (-21), Astros (-19), and Toronto Blue Jays (6-7, -17) are all within the same realm as the A's. If you loop in National League teams, then they're also better than the Miami Marlins (2-11, -30) and Colorado Rockies (3-10, -35), and fairly close to the San Francisco Giants, who hold the same record but a better differential at -15.

One big factor for the team's relative success has been the improved pitching the A's have been receiving so far this season. As we enter play on Friday, Oakland has a 4.00 team ERA, which ranks right in the middle of the pack at 15th. They have a better ERA than the Dodgers (4.20), Mariners (4.84), Rays (4.99), Braves (5.01), and Astros (5.09) in the early going.

The reason that the A's record isn't even better is because their offense hasn't quite taken that next step just yet, putting up a total of 37 runs scored, ranking them 28th in baseball. To be fair, they did face the Cleveland Guardians and Boston Red Sox, two solid groups of arms that rank near the top of MLB in ERA to start the season.

The magic number for this group seems to be scoring four or more runs per game. Right now they're averaging 2.84. When they score four or more runs, the A's are 4-3. Two of the three losses have been by one run, and the third loss in those games was by two. In other words, those games are much closer and could go the other way with a big hit.

While the A's rank 28th in runs scored, they're actually 12th in home runs with 13. The problem has been that they're hitting .205 as a team with a .276 OBP, which unsurprisingly ranks them 28th and 29th. If Oakland can start getting some guys on ahead of these home runs, reaching that magical four run total could start becoming the norm for this club, which would keep them in way more ballgames than last season.

With the Nationals and Cardinals coming to town, the A's will face two teams that present fairly even matchups over the next week. St. Louis holds a 3.99 team ERA, while Washington ranks 26th in baseball with a 5.03. Offensively both clubs rank better than the A's, but they're still in the lower-third in runs scored with the Cardinals 50 runs ranking 21st, and the Nats' 46 ranking 25th.

Oakland has a chance to rattle off some wins this homestand before heading out on a tough three-city road trip that includes visits to Cleveland, Yankee Stadium, and Baltimore.