Three potential outcomes for A's lease extension meeting with Oakland

Will the two sides be able to come together to keep the A's in Oakland for three years, or potentially longer?

The Oakland A's and officials from the city of Oakland and county of Alameda have apparently resumed speaking, and plan to meet up to discuss a possible lease extension at the Oakland Coliseum on Thursday. The team's lease expires after the season, and they need a place to play baseball games from 2025-27. 

Staying in the Bay Area would also help out A's owner John Fisher, since he'd continue to receive his $70 million checks from Comcast Sports California every year from his broadcast deal. If the team leaves the market, that money goes away, so there is incentive for the A's to continue playing in Oakland, even if their ultimate goal is to land in Las Vegas. 

With the headlines coming from Sin City ranging from "Are we alive out there?" to "The A's should stay in Oakland" in recent weeks, the planned project appears to be in trouble, which is giving A's fans hope that this upcoming meeting could eventually lead to the two sides discussing building in Oakland again. That's one option.

Here are three options for this meeting could go. 

Option one: Nothing happens. The two sides don't come together on a deal and the team figures out some other option, essentially taking a return to Oakland off the table. It's hard to see John Fisher leaving that much money on the table, but it's a possibility if he truly has things lined up in Las Vegas. This meeting was just to check in and see what it would cost them to stay in Oakland instead of moving the organization twice in a four-year period. 

Option two: The two sides come to an agreement, but it actually helps the A's leave town. Here is how that would look. The A's continue to get the money from their RSN deal, so that's added income. A portion of that income could be used for the ballpark in Vegas. The city wants the A's legacy left behind in Oakland. Done. Vegas wants a homegrown team anyway, and rebranding moves merchandise. 

Fisher also agrees to sell his half of the Coliseum site to AASEG, but at market value. That could be somewhere in the $150 million range, if not more. At $150 million, that's roughly 13% of the $1.12 billion he needs to make the ballpark in Vegas happen. That's a big chunk of change, and if he can't find private investors, this could help him get a better financing plan. 

While handing both of these over to the city would help Fisher without having to give up a ton, they're also decent concessions for Oakland. Fans want the A's name to stay in The Town with the hope of landing an expansion franchise. Even if that doesn't happen, at least their favorite team wouldn't be flaunted in their face. Fisher doesn't have plans for the Coliseum site while working towards Vegas, so if he's able to land a good bit of cash by off-loading it, then it's a win-win for him. 

AASEG and Oakland could then redevelop the Coliseum site. AASEG wants to transform the site into a "thriving sports, entertainment, educational and business district in East Oakland." They also wouldn't mind the first black majority-owned NFL franchise. This would arguably be a win for both sides, but Oakland would still lose its baseball team.

Option three: The lease is agreed to, and the A's stay. This one wouldn't be immediate, but it would start off as a lease extension with some discussion in the coming months about re-opening discussions about building in Oakland. Perhaps as a ballpark-only site at either the Coliseum or Howard Terminal. Fisher is willing to take on local investors to get this thing across the finish line this time around. Perhaps he even gets in on the redevelopment of the Coliseum site. 

Dave Kaval tells Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao his dastardly plan all along was to try and get a better deal out of the city when the team pivoted to Vegas, but she called his bluff. They raise a toast to the future home of the A's in Oakland.