MLB Draft Lottery Odds Announced

Jason Burke | Oct 4, 2024

Jul 9, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Oakland Athletics draft pick Jacob Wilson shakes hands with Rob Manfred during the first round of the MLB Draft at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images / Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images

Now that the 2024 regular season is over, we can see what odds each team will have to hold a lottery selection for the 2025 MLB Draft. The odds are handed out in reverse order of record, but this year there are a couple of wrinkles that have come into play.

While the Chicago White Sox (41-121) finished with the worst record in baseball not only in 2024, but also the worst record of all time, they will not have the first pick, nor will they have a chance at getting it. That is because they finished with a lottery selection in the 2024 Draft, picking fifth overall, and the CBA states that a team that does not receive revenue sharing can only pick in the lottery one year in a row, so the Sox have been moved to the No. 10 spot, where they will make their first pick.

The same goes for 'The A's' as they will be called for the next three or four seasons while playing in Sacramento. The A's have had lottery picks the past two seasons, landing Jacob Wilson and Nick Kurtz, which they were allowed to do since they receive revenue sharing. The CBA says that those teams can only pick in the lottery in back-to-back seasons, so the A's will be picking at No. 11.

Because of these changes, the Colorado Rockies end up with the best odds at the top pick (22.45%), same as the Miami Marlins. The rest of the list goes Angels (17.96%), Nationals (10.20%), Blue Jays (7.48%), Pirates (5.31%), Reds (3.67%), Rangers (2.45%), Giants (1.90%), then the White Sox and A's place at 10 and 11. From there it rounds out with the Rays (1.50%), Red Sox (1.22%), Twins (1.09%), Cardinals (0.82%), Cubs (0.68%), Mariners (0.54%) and Diamondbacks (0.27%).

One caveat that is worth noting is that regardless of how the order for the first round shakes out, the White Sox will be selecting at the top of each subsequent round, much like the A's did this past Draft after finishing with the worst record in MLB in 2023 and ending up with the fourth overall selection in the Draft.

After finishing with a 69-93 record, a 19-win improvement over the '23 season, the A's will be picking fifth in the subsequent rounds of the '25 Draft.