A's JJ Bleday may have a second breakout on the way

Jason Burke | Nov 29, 2024

Aug 24, 2024; Oakland, California, USA; Oakland Athletics outfielder JJ Bleday (33) gestures toward the Oakland Athletics dugout after hitting a one run home run against the Milwaukee Brewers during the first inning at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Robert Edwards-Imagn Images / Robert Edwards-Imagn Images

When the A's traded reliever A.J. Puk for outfielder JJ Bleday, there were a number of fans that were against the move. They saw Puk as a potential dominant closer, and Bleday as someone that had struggled at the dish in his brief time in the big leagues.

In the two seasons since, Bleday has outperformed Puk as a member of the A's, putting up 3.5 fWAR to the left-hander's 2.6 as a pretty good arm out of the 'pen. Puk has since been traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks, while Bleday just enjoyed a bit of a breakout season in 2024, batting .243 with a .324 OBP and 20 home runs. He walked 10.9% of the time, cut his strikeout rate down to 19.5%, and finished the year with a 120 wRC+, 20% above league average.

Obviously those numbers now have fans seeing a bright future for Bleday, but there are some other stats that he put up that were a little more under-the-radar that could point to him having an even bigger 2025 campaign in Sacramento.

As we've discussed, there is reason to believe that the ball will travel a little better in the Sacramento heat, something that was not present at the Oakland Coliseum. Park factors are going to play a big role in the team's success or failure next year.

Bleday has some tools needed for success. He ranked second on the club last year in fly ball rate (47.8%) to just Esteury Ruiz among players with at least 50 plate appearances. Ruiz also hit two homers in 29 games last year as he was attempting to showcase his power a bit more before injuries caught up to him. Bleday's fly ball rate ranked eighth in all of MLB among qualified hitters.

The reason this one statistic is important for Bleday is because the A's have been signing a number of pitchers with ground ball rates above 50% this offseason, meaning that they're at least preparing for the ball to travel differently in their new park. Whether or not they expect that outcome could be up for debate, but they at least want to have the tools on hand to keep the ball in the park a bit more if needed.

Bleday also pulled the ball 42% of the time, and all 20 of his home runs went out to right and right-center. Right field in Sacramento is five feet closer than at the Coliseum, and when you add in that the ball could travel further anyway, that should lead to some extra long balls.

For reference, Brent Rooker, who hit 39 home runs in 2024, pulled the ball 44.2% of the time and hit it in the air 45.6%. While we shouldn't expect Bleday to start matching Rook's power numbers, he is doing some of the same things that have led to success for the A's DH.

The biggest difference between them is bat speed, with Bleday's being roughly league average while Rooker's is in the 78th percentile, which led to an average exit velocity difference of 88.5 miles per hour to 91.9. That 3.4 mph difference equates to a little over 15 feet of distance. Still, the numbers involved here are the averages over the course of a full season. It's fully possible for Bleday, now a big-league regular, to make more consistent hard contact.

And if he does, there is one more metric that could bode well for him. His launch angle for the 2024 season ended up at 18.6 degrees, which is right in line with Rooker's 18.9 degree angle. What this means is that he's hitting the ball the right way, but just not as hard.

If Bleday keeps his metrics right where they are for the 2025 season, then Sutter Health Park may take care of the rest.