A's Arbitration Estimates for 2024

The A's have six players that are arbitration eligible this winter, and among them, a couple of non-tender candidates

MLB Trade Rumors has released their yearly arbitration estimates for every team, and in the mix are their projections for the A's six arbitration eligible players this season. The A's also have two players set to hit free agency this winter, and have already seen a couple of minor leaguers elect free agency as well. 

First up on the arbitration list, we have Paul Blackburn who is projected for $3.2 million in 2024. The 29-year-old made his season debut at the end of May after suffering a fingernail avulsion on his pitching hand during spring training. Blackburn ended up with 103 2/3 innings pitched and a 4.43 ERA (3.96 FIP) while raising his strikeout rate to a batter an inning on average. By fWAR, he was nearly twice as valuable as any pitcher on the A's staff with 1.5 WAR. Lucas Erceg finished with 0.8 out of the bullpen. 

With arbitration projections also comes the question of whether a player will be non-tendered or not. For Blackburn, he could either serve as the veteran in the rotation next season with a lot of youth expected to be joining him, or the A's could trade him like they did Cole Irvin and get something in return. Non-tendering Blackburn wouldn't necessarily make sense.

Next up is Seth Brown who will be in his first year of arbitration and is projected for $2.4 million. Brown spent most of his time in right field this season, but also split time between left, at first, and as the team's DH at different points in the season. He hit .222 with a .286 on-base percentage (OBP) and a 92 wRC+ (100 is league average) while mashing 14 home runs. It was a down year for Brown, but he also served as one of the veterans on the club and helped the young guys get acclimated to The Show. 

He'll be entering his age 31 season in 2024, and the A's have a lot of young outfielders to choose from heading into next season with Esteury Ruiz, Lawrence Butler, JJ Bleday, and Brent Rooker potentially all on the roster. There is a chance that the A's could non-tender Brown, but it would depend on their internal assessments of the young outfielders. He's likely to stick around.

James Kaprielian, 29, is projected for $1.5 million in his first try at arbitration, and it's coming after arguably his worst season, posting a 6.34 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP in 61 innings before placing him on the IL with a shoulder strain that ended his season. Kap was also up and down between Triple-A and Oakland a little bit, but he seemed to take it in stride and called it part of his journey. After a rough April (12.94 ERA) and a little time in Las Vegas, he posted a 4.57 ERA in four May starts and a 3.47 ERA in four June starts. He looked to have turned his season around before injury cut it short.

Next year's rotation could include Blackburn, Kaprielian, Luis Medina (out of options), JP Sears, and then have Ken Waldichuk, Joe Boyle, Mason Miller, Freddy Tarnok, Joey Estes, Hogan Harris, and Adrián Martínez all fighting for the fifth spot. The front office will have to balance veterans and younger players in the rotation this winter, and one of Kaprielian or Blackburn could be traded to clear room for the young guns, but the A's could also hold onto them for the first month or two of 2024, and move one of them then. 

Austin Pruitt, 34, is projected to make $1.2 million in arbitration, and he was also one of the most effective pitchers the A's had, finishing with a 2.98 ERA across 48 innings. The fact that the A's have already placed him on waivers (which he cleared) likely means that he'll either reject the assignment in the coming days and become a free agent, or be non-tendered before the deadline next month. He could always come back on another minor league deal, but after his solid season for the A's in '23, he may be able to grab a roster spot somewhere in the league.

Carlos Pérez, 32, was brought in by the A's late in camp after Manny Piña landed on the IL, and he got off to a pretty hot start, going 13-for-39 in April. He finished the season batting .226 with a .293 OBP and six home runs. Pérez is projected at $1.2 million for next season, and the problem likely isn't the money here, but that he was more of a placeholder to get through the 2023 season while Kyle McCann and Tyler Soderstrom continued to develop in the minors. 

Soderstrom made his debut after the All Star break and struggled in sporadic playing time, but the hope is likely to use him as the backup catcher to Shea Langeliers in 2024, and if he's not ready, then McCann can take that role to start the season. McCann, 25, will be Rule 5 eligible this winter, which means that Oakland will presumably add him to the 40-man roster to protect him. This all likely means that Pérez will be non-tendered in the coming weeks. 

Finally, there is lefty Sean Newcomb, 30, who is potentially another candidate for the rotation. He's projected to make $1 million after posting a 3.00 ERA in 15 innings before being placed on the IL in late September with a sprained left knee. Newcomb was part of a real trade between the A's and Giants at the end of August, and he pitched particularly well out of the bullpen, notching a 1.13 ERA in eight innings. 

Newcomb, Kirby Snead, Kyle Muller, and Sam Long are all lefties projected in the bullpen over at Roster Resource, and none of the four have any options remaining, which could lead to some movement from that group. If he's open to pitching out the bullpen, the A's should be interested in keeping Newcomb around.