Breaking Down the Cole Irvin Trade

The Oakland A's traded away their likely Opening Day starter, but why?

Since his arrival from the Philadelphia Phillies in 2021 in exchange for cash considerations, Cole Irvin has really grown on A's fans, proving to be a reliable starter on the mound, and a pretty decent human being off it. 

After making one start in his first spring training for the A's, I had talked about his pitch mix in that start and was wondering if he was switching things up with his new team. He not only listened to the show (Locked on A's), but then asked if he could be a guest on the show. We recorded just a few days later, and he gave me an hour of his time. That's the kind of guy Cole Irvin showed that he was up front, and over and over again in his two seasons with the A's. 

Last season he was helping some of the inexperienced pitchers that were on the A's pitching staff with him, giving them pointers or sitting in on their bullpen sessions. He was slated to be the team's anchor in the rotation this season, and played no small part in some fan's optimism for Oakland being better than expected because at least one spot in the starting five was spoken for. 

Some will say this was a salary dump, but Irvin is one year away from arbitration, which also means he heads to Baltimore with four years of team control. 

In his two seasons with the A's, he was almost exactly league average each season, posting a 4.24 ERA in 2021 when the average was 4.27, and he finished up 2022 with six shutout innings in his final start to drop his ERA to 3.98. The league average last year was 3.97. 

On a rebuilding team, a league average starter is a nice commodity to have. A team on the upswing like the Orioles find those types of pitchers valuable as well, so from that standpoint, at least Cole is going to a team with some real hopes of making the postseason. 

The A's may have backed themselves into a corner by acquiring so many pitchers in the numerous trades they've completed over the past calendar year, bringing in rotation hopefuls Kyle Muller, Ken Waldichuk, JP Sears, Freddie Tarnok, and Luis Medina in the Frankie Montas and Sean Murphy deals, while also signing Shintaro Fujinami and Drew Rucinski this winter. Someone was bound to get traded to make room for the young guys, and Irvin was the most established pitcher the A's had left. 

But with four years of control, still being a year away from arbitration, and the intangibles that Irvin brings to the ballpark, why move him? 

He was slated to be a three-peat guest on Locked on A's on Thursday, but he was traded just hours before we were set to record, so that hasn't happened (yet?). But one question I was going to ask him could potentially play a role in the A's thinking here: With the implementation of the pitch clock in 2023, and every pitcher in the game working a little faster, does that inadvertently impact a guy like him that is already a quick worker? 

I haven't seen any studies on this, and I doubt the research has been done, and I'm not sure that it can be, honestly. But when a pitcher like Cole Irvin, who has excellent command but sits at 91 with his heater has one less tool in his tool belt, i.e. working quickly, that could lead to a little bit of regression since batters will be used to everyone working a little more quickly. It'll be the norm. It could also have no impact on Cole whatsoever. 

Irvin has also struggled away from his home park, and that includes his brief time with the Phillies. At home in his career he has posted a 3.64 ERA and has allowed 17 home runs in 210.1 total innings. On the road he has a 5.23 ERA and has given up 39 homers in 194.1 innings. 

That's probably not enough to trade arguably the best pitcher on the staff heading into 2023, but it could have played into some of the calculus of the decision. That, and the front office would prefer to give those innings to one of the other number of starting pitching options that they've acquired who could have more upside if given the innings. 

The biggest benefactors of this deal are Irvin, whose role likely doesn't change on his new team, even though he'll be going from his own Oregon University colors of green and gold to the rival Oregon State colors of orange and black. He'll also have to throw to Adley Rutschman, who went to Oregon State. Regardless, Irvin will still be a veteran on a young team and be looked to for guidance and stability. 

The biggest benefactor for the A's is whomever ends up taking the now vacant spot in the rotation. There were already a number of spots unclaimed, with Paul Blackburn being the only starter truly penciled in along with Fuji and Rucinski close behind. With Irvin now in Baltimore and James Kaprielian recovering from off-season surgery, his spot could be up for grabs too. 

There is going to be a lot of discussion over who should be the A's Opening Day starter in the coming weeks, but it's still too early to have bold declarations. Blackburn also ended the 2022 season on the IL, and his health hasn't been confirmed just yet, but he was the A's All Star representative in 2022. We should know more about his status once pitchers and catchers report in a couple of weeks. 

From a storyline perspective, if Fuji impresses during his spring outings, having him start on Opening Day opposite Shohei Ohtani would be one heck of a way to kick off the season. Fuji has already expressed his desire to pitch against Ohtani. 

In return for Cole Irvin and prospect Kyle Virbitsky, the A's received 21-year-old utility infield prospect Darell Hernaiz. He was selected by Baltimore in the 5th round of the 2019 Draft out of High School, and in 105 games split between A Ball (32), High-A (60), and Double-A (13), Hernaiz slashed .273/.341/.438 with 12 home runs and 32 stolen bases while only being caught four times. 

Like most guys the A's bring in these days, Hernaiz is a contact bat. In 255 plate appearances in High-A, he struck out just 16.9% of the time as a 20-year-old. He struggled in his brief taste of Double-A, batting .113 and striking out 27.1%, but he'll get another crack at the level in 2023 while getting more than 59 plate appearances. 

In A Ball in 2021, just 18 of his 103 hits (17.4%) went for extra bases. This past season, spread across three levels, 38 of his 111 hits (34.23%) went for extra bases, including five triples and 21 doubles, along with those 12 homes. He has plus speed according to reports, but the biggest question surrounding him is how his body will fill out. He has been playing primarily shortstop with an average throwing arm, and if he bulks up, some believe he could be pushed to either second or third base. 

He could be seen as a potential upgrade to Euribiel Angeles, a roaming infielder already in the A's system that was brought in as part of the Sean Manaea trade last year. Angeles has the same contact ability, but hasn't shown the pop or the stolen bae ability that Hernaiz has displayed just yet. That said, Angeles is still just 20 years old and won't be 21 until May. 

Both Hernaiz and Angeles will be Rule 5 eligible next off-season, and both will likely be getting playing time up the middle in Midland with manager Bobby Crosby this season. 

The A's have an assortment of intriguing arms for their rotation. 2023 will be about seeing which of those arms take a step forward and cement themselves in the rotation for 2024 and beyond. The A's feel pretty good about being able to develop pitchers, and identifying pitchers that they can help unlock via trade. 

Cole Irvin came to this team as an option for the rotation in 2021. When Mike Fiers went down in spring training, his spot opened up, and Irvin seized that opportunity, making 32 starts that season and another 30 last year. The A's did what they do on Thursday in trading another fan favorite. 

Now Cole Irvin can show the fans in Baltimore what he does.