Former D-Backs, Mets Prospect Ready to Break Out With A's

Jason Burke | Oct 21, 2024

Aug 24, 2024; Oakland, California, USA; Oakland Athletics pitcher Michel Otanez (47) throws a pitch against the Milwaukee Brewers during the ninth inning at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Robert Edwards-Imagn Images / Robert Edwards-Imagn Images

Back in 2023, the Oakland A's acquired Lucas Erceg from the Milwaukee Brewers for cash, and by 2024 he was serving as a high leverage arm in the team's bullpen, setting up closer Mason Miller. Michel Otañez had previously spent time in both the New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks' organizations, but seemingly found a home with the A's in 2024.

Otañez made his big-league debut on June 10 in San Diego, and was immediately optioned back down to Triple-A Las Vegas. A month later he was back with the A's, and he'd stay up for the rest of the season, opening plenty of eyes in the process.

He finished the season with a 3.44 ERA across 34 MLB innings, and his advanced metrics liked him even more with a 2.48 xERA and a 2.73 FIP. Part of the reason for that is that he struck out 36.4% of the batters he faced, which would have ranked near the top of baseball had he pitched enough innings. Mason Miller was the top of the list, and he struck out 41.8% of the batters he faced in 2024. Otañez ranked eighth in strikeout percentage among pitchers with at least 30 innings.

There is a good chance that Otañez flies under-the-radar this offseason because of the lack of innings pitched, but when it comes to evaluating pitchers, there is a handy tool on FanGraphs called "Stuff+" which basically tells you how a pitcher's stuff rates compared to the league, and the great part is, you don't need a huge sample size to see what you're working with.

Obviously, the one big flaw for Otañez is his walk rate, which sat at 13.2% last season. For him to reach the next level, and potentially follow in Erceg's footsteps, that rate will have to come down just a bit. Erceg went from a 14.3% walk rate in 2023 down to a 6.3% rate in '24, while also upping his strikeout rate by one-and-a-half percent to 28.5%. Also like Erceg, the advanced stats like him a bit more than the numbers he was producing, with the former A's righty holding a 4.75 ERA (3.31 FIP) in 2023.

Erceg finished with a 3.36 ERA in 2024.

Back to the Stuff+ metrics. In terms of pure "stuff" Otañez ranked fourth on the team with a 118 (100 is league average) behind Miller, Joe Boyle and Michael Kelly. Right behind Otañez at a 110 was Erceg. The difference between them this season was the difference in location. Erceg finished with a 101 "Location+" while Otañez held a 95, or just a bit below average.

With a little bit of work on his control, Otañez has the chance to be a special arm out of the A's bullpen. He has three better than league average pitches in his 98 mile an hour heater, a 97 mph sinker, and a nasty slider. The four-seamer and the slider had expected batting averages against of .134 and .118, and those are the two offerings he used the most, good for a combined 82.2% of the time.

Michel Otañez misses bats, and with the A's moving to Sacramento, that could be a valuable commodity during the team's tenure at Sutter Health Park. Watch out for this righty next season.