JP Sears is on a Roll

Jason Burke | Aug 11, 2024

Jul 30, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; Oakland Athletics starting pitcher JP Sears (38) delivers a pitch against the San Francisco Giants during the first inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports / Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports

Oakland A's starter JP Sears has been on the mound every fifth day since the start of the 2023 season, and after his start against the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday, he's only getting better as 2024 has continues.

After posting a 4.54 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP in 2023 across 32 starts, Sears has improved a bit this season, currently holding a 4.32 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP through 24 starts. This season he has worked in a new sinker, which he now throws 11% of the time, and while it's not necessarily his best pitch with a .296 expected batting average, it does help to keep batters off his four-seamer.

Last year Sears gave up 34 home runs, with 13% of the fly balls he allowed ending up over the fence. This year that rate has dropped to 9.8% while allowing 18 long balls. On a per-inning basis, he's allowing big flies at a lower clip as well, dropping from 1.78 per nine to 1.21. Ideally, that number would sit at or below one. The reason that home runs are such a focal point is because Sears gave up the fourth-most dingers in baseball last year, so seeing that rate go down has always been a focus for his development for the 2024 campaign.

Sears has tossed seven innings in each of his last three starts, making this the first time in his career he's had three such starts. He came close last year with seven innings in three of four in June and July. Over his most recent stretch, Sears has totaled 21 innings, 9 hits allowed, four runs, just one home run, five walks, and 18 strikeouts.

If we zoom out a little further, Sears had a solid month of July as well, finishing with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in five outings. It's especially impressive since in one of those starts he allowed seven runs in six innings against the Houston Astros. He tossed shutouts on the bookends of the month, while allowing one and two runs in the other two.

Over his last seven starts, Sears holds a 2.91 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP, going 6-1 in that span, which is a top-20 ERA in MLB since the start of July. He's on the leaderboard mixed with guys like Chris Sale, Framber Valdez, and Zach Wheeler--some of the best arms in the game.

Sears was acquired from the New York Yankees as part of the return in the Frankie Montas and Lou Trivino deal, and even if he were the only player the A's had received, Oakland would have still come out ahead. That may sound odd given that his ERA is over four, but the league average is 4.11 this season, and it was 4.33 last year. Having a league average arm that is able to take the ball every fifth day is a huge bonus for any team, but it means even more when you're a team like Oakland that is in the midst of rebuilding, while dealing with numerous season-ending injuries.

A's manager Mark Kotsay told reporters before Sunday's game in Toronto that the biggest challenge for JP is, "the location of his fastball, and being able to utilize that changeup to keep the righties off-balance."

That four-seamer has accounted for 50% of the home runs he's allowed this year, but it also has a batting average against of .227 with an xBA that's even lower at .213. It's also his biggest swing-and-miss pitch, with a 25.9% whiff rate. To Kotsay's point, it's all about location.

Sears is still a work in progress to get him to his peak, but he's also been pretty solid on the ride up the mountain.