Opinion: The A's Outfield Situation is Complicated

Oakland has a good idea who will be their starting outfield in 2023, but there is intrigue this Spring in who will be their fourth outfielder

Heading into last season, it was pretty clear that newly acquired Cristian Pache would be the team's Opening Day centerfielder. But after a rough 2022, and the addition of Esteury Ruiz in the Sean Murphy trade, center seems to be spoken for, and now Pache's tenure with the team is in doubt. 

A's manager Mark Kotsay told the San Francisco Chronicle this week, "For Pache, he’s in a difficult situation. Not only is he competing for a roster spot here, but he’s going to showcase himself for 29 other teams. So it’s an important spring for Pache, no question, from an individual standpoint, for his career going forward."

That doesn't sound like the team has long-term plans for Pache, but it was noted that the club would consider it a positive if Pache were to draw more walks in Spring Training. 

That phrasing feels very open-ended. How many walks are "enough"?

In the first half of the season, across 214 plate appearances, Pache walked just 11 times, good for a 5.1% walk rate. That's not great. But when he came back up to the Majors, he walked four times in 46 plate appearances, good for a rate of 8.7%. Last season, an 8.7% walk rate would have landed him in the 57th percentile in all of baseball. 

In the Dominican Winter League this offseason, he drew seven walks in 66 plate appearances, good for a 10.6% walk rate, which is a rate that would rank him in the 80th percentile. Yes, this came in the Dominican Winter League, but Spring Training is filled with guys from the low minors getting a look at big-league camp that may not be ready for The Show just yet. Do those walks still count? 

I guess the bigger quarrel I have here is that Pache has shown that he can draw walks at a better clip than the one he showed in the first half of last season in the two small sample sizes that have come since he got called back up. Yet it will be a third small sample size that could determine if the A's are ready to give up on him. You have to think that Pache doesn't clear waivers with his elite defense. A team like the Los Angeles Dodgers can make room for a player with his potential, and with their resources, he could turn into a pretty solid Major Leaguer. 

If the Dodgers can make room for him and they're contending for a World Series, why can't the A's, who don't have those same aspirations just yet? 

It's also worth noting that in five Spring Trainings, the highest number of plate appearances Pache has received in any camp has been 39. You can argue that the two samples I used from the second half and his time in he DWL weren't very large, but neither is the one likely to determine his future in the organization. 

The reason I think the A's should keep Pache around for another season is because his defense is truly special (94th percentile in Outs Above Average, 92nd in Arm Strength) and they knew what his bat was when they acquired him. It would be silly to cut bait after one season. They knew how many options he had when they made that deal. Now it's time to help develop him into, at the minimum, a usable big leaguer.

At the very least, he could be a platoon partner for Seth Brown, who should probably sit against left-handers. Pache wasn't stellar against lefties, but he was alright. He hit .220 (batted .166 overall) with a .281 on-base, struck out 15.7% of the time and walked at a 7.9% clip in 89 plate appearances. That was good for a 77 wRC+, which is still 23% below league average. 

By comparison, Seth Brown hit just .174 against lefties with a .232 OBP, struck out 30.3% of the time and walked at 6.1%. That comes out to a 60 wRC+, or 40% below league average. 

If you're looking for a spot for Pache, there's one right there. Give him a month or two, see how he progresses, and then make a decision on his future while giving him the best shot at having success--not 40 random plate appearances in Spring Training. 

What complicates this a little bit is that the A's have a couple of outfielders that have a legitimate shot at supplanting Pache in newly acquired JJ Bleday (Puk trade), and Conner Capel. 

Bleday was the 4th overall selection in the 2019 Draft, and had a rough first trip to the big leagues, batting .167 with a .277 OBP and a 72 wRC+ across 65 games with the Miami Marlins. I think Bleday will be a solid outfielder for the A's before long, but I also think Miami rushed him through the minor leagues just a little bit, and a brief stint in Triple-A to get some of his confidence back and apply what he learned in his time in the big leagues last season could do him well. 

He's played all of 233 games in the minors, or roughly a season and a half over a Major League 162 game season. 

I also think that if Bleday is going to be in Oakland, he needs regular playing time, and with Seth Brown, Estuery Ruiz, and Ramón Laureano already roaming the outfield, that playing time just isn't there. It would make more sense to me to bring up Bleday midseason, after the A's have traded away Brown, Laureano, or both. Plus, it gives the A's some time to either build up Pache's trade value, or he could earn a spot in the outfield himself. 

The real dark horse here is Capel. He played in 13 games with the A's down the stretch after the team claimed him off waivers in September and all he did was hit, batting .371 with a .425 OBP, two homers, a triple, and nine RBI. He also went 1-for-2 with a pair of walks against left-handers in 2022, giving him a 284 wRC+, 184% above league average. 

If the A's truly feel that they need to move on from Cristian Pache at the end of camp, Capel could be the guy to take his place. That said, he too has options remaining, so having him start the season out in Triple-A wouldn't cost the team anything. 

The battle to be the A's 4th outfielder on Opening Day may end up being the biggest clash in camp, and the result could leave the organization feeling the effects for years to come if they let Pache go and he develops somewhere else.