Opposing Manager Thinks A's JP Sears Could Have Bright Future

JP Sears led the Oakland A's in a number of statistical categories in 2023, but he's still a work in progress

When the Oakland A's acquired JP Sears as part of the Frankie Montas trade, he wasn't really on fan's radar just yet. Instead, they looked at number six overall prospect in the Yankees' system, Ken Waldichuk, or flamethrower Luis Medina as the big pieces of the deal. 

Sears went into Spring Training vying for a spot in the rotation, but he may have landed there due to a number of injuries to starters before Opening Day. Over the course of the 2023 season Sears solidified his spot, making a team-high 32 starts and totaling 172 1/3 innings (the most of his career), while holding a 4.54 ERA in his first full season in the big leagues. The league average ERA this season was 4.33, so not too far above that. 

His ERA by month jumped all over the place, from 6.23 in April to 2.94 in May, then back up to 4.55 in June, followed by a 3.07 in July. His 8.25 ERA in August was the highest of any month, but his 2.93 in September was the lowest of any month. One key for Sears heading into 2024 will be consistency. 

Another key for Sears will be limiting the long ball. He finished tied for fifth in the Majors in home runs allowed with 34, while Lance Lynn led baseball with 44 (along with four more in one playoff start). Back in 2021, Detroit Tigers starter Tarik Skubal gave up 35 home runs while posting a 4.34 ERA over 149 1/3 innings. He had a home run per fly ball rate of 20.5%. In the 198 innings in the two seasons since, Skubal has allowed a total of 13 home runs and posted ERAs of 3.52 and 2.80. 

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When the Tigers were in Oakland at the end of the season, Detroit's manager A.J. Hinch talked a little about the process of getting a pitcher to limit the long ball.

"I think the best way to get the best version out of a pitcher one is encouragement. Two is an intense focus on the pitches they're using, their game planning. The biggest difference between a young pitcher who struggles and a more seasoned pitcher is gameplan. 

"It's not throwing stupid pitches in stupid places to the wrong hitter. And as players adapt to the level, they make less and less mistakes because they don't put themselves in that position. You know, I think as this is probably broader, not even for this particular situation but pitchers learn the chess match the more they get to pitch. And so I think young pitchers would give up a lot of homers and one you don't want them to fear the strike zone. But you don't want them to simply accept the strike zone as being the end all goal if that makes sense."

Now, Sears and Skubal are not identical pitchers. Detroit's lefty sat 96 with the heater this past season, and back in 2021 it was hitting 94. Sears on the other hand is hitting 93. Could the A's southpaw find some extra velocity? It's possible, but the key for him could be the gameplan preparation, like Hinch talked about. 

In 2021, Skubal used his fastball 42% of the time and his slider 23%. His sinker was used 13% of the time, the changeup 12%, and a curveball 7%, with a split-finger and a cutter also being registered a few times. This season the Tigers left-hander had that added velocity, sure, but he also mixed his pitches better, too. The fastball was still his most-used pitch, but the usage dropped to 35%, while his changeup (24%) and slider (20%) both registered above 20%, which is key for mixing his pitches. 

Sears threw his four-seam 50% of the time this past season and 17 of the home runs he gave up were off the fastball. His sweeper was used less than half as much (22%), while his changeup (15%) was used almost exclusively to right-handers, while he also mixed in a slider (12%). 

Cutting down on the fastball usage appears to be step one, with some of those pitches going to the changeup instead. Sears isn't an overpowering pitcher, so relying on changing speeds and hitting his spots will be the key for him moving forward. 

After his final home start, Sears said that his biggest improvements over the course of the season came in limiting the damage in certain innings so that they didn't get away from him, and also on the changeup. "I feel like [the changeup] has come a long way since April. I feel like I've been able to locate it really well the last month or so. It's become a big pitch for me."

In the month of September, the changeup was Sears' second-most used pitch at 21%. In his five September starts, he allowed just one home run, with the previous low in a month this season being six home runs allowed, which he did in every month from May through August. In his final start of the season, he allowed two dingers to the Angels on October 1. 

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Sears also mentioned that he could be adding a new pitch this off-season. "The game's definitely gotten to be where two different fastballs has become a big thing. I've tinkered around with thumbing like a two-seam, a sinker or something, so that might be something I feel like I can add as far as my arsenal." 

He also mentioned that he wants to work on his slider, which was inconsistent in the second half of the season, and get to throwing "a really good slider next year." Consistency was a big talking point for Sears on what he's working on for 2024. 

If Sears had given up ten fewer home runs this season, and let's call them all solo shots, then he would have had a 4.03 ERA instead of one above four-and-a-half. That would have been significantly better than league average and right about the season that Marcus Stroman had for the Chicago Cubs. 

He's shown that he can dominate hitters for stretches at a time, but 2024 will be about consistency and limiting the long ball as he works his way from the third piece in the Montas trade to the main piece of the A's rotation.