Projecting Ryan Noda for 2024

Ryan Noda was one of Baseball's top first basemen in his rookie campaign. What will he do for an encore?

Ryan Noda had one heck of a debut season for the Oakland A's, finishing as a top-10 first baseman with a 123 wRC+, ahead of Paul Goldschmidt, Pete Alonso, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He also finished third among all AL rookies with at least 450 plate appearances, trailing just Tristan Casas (129) and Gunnar Henderson (123). While Noda and Henderson tied in wRC+. Henderson gets the nod in the standings since he won the AL Rookie of the Year. 

Noda will be the A's starting first baseman heading into the 2024 campaign, and he's earned that spot. He hit .229 with a .364 OBP last year, launching 16 home runs and holding a 15.4% walk rate. 

The one thing that will be integral to Noda's future success will be cutting down on strikeouts. In his rookie season he struck out 34.3% of the time, which was the highest strikeout rate of any player with at least 450 plate appearances. 

So what do the projections over at FanGraphs have in store for Noda in 2024? 

Like we saw with Zack Gelof yesterday, they have Noda taking a step back next season. This is typical for players in their second year as the league adjusts to them, and how quickly Noda and Gelof adjust back could be the difference in their seasons. 

They have Noda batting .211 with a .338 OBP, both of which are down, but they also have him hitting 19 homers, which would be an improvement of three dingers. As for his wRC+, they have him listed as one of the best hitters on the team with a 108 wRC+ (100 is league average), but also have him walking slightly less (14.4%) and striking out a little less (32.9%). 

Another similarity to Gelof's projections is that they have Noda's BABIP taking nearly a 50 point dive down to .299, while it was at .347 in 2023. His BABIP has been below .328 just once in his professional career, and that was back in 2021 when he was first in Double-A with the Los Angeles Dodgers. 

According to the projections, Noda will be tied for the team lead in wRC+, and second in WAR behind Gelof with 1.4 wins above replacement. 

One reason Noda could buck his projections lies on his Baseball Savant page, which sure has a lot of red lines on it. His average exit velocity (79th percentile), barrel% (85th), hard hit rate (71st), sweet spot% (89th), chase% (94th), and walk rate (98th) all point to a good season if he can keep them up. 

The one worrisome stat from that page is his whiff%, which sat in the second percentile. In terms of whiffs, sliders and changeups gave him the most trouble of the pitches he saw regularly with whiff rates of 45.9% and 45.6%. 

If Noda can cut down on the strikeout rate and make a little more contact next season, we could be looking at the makings of a breakout campaign instead of a sophomore slump. 

Projecting Zack Gelof in 2024