Proposed A's, Diamondbacks trade makes sense on paper, but would never happen

Jason Burke | 20 Hours Ago

Sep 23, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez (57) throws in the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images / Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images

It's hot stove season, and everyone is clamoring for some action on the free agent and trade markets. Some have even taken to proposing their own deals over at Baseball Trade Values and posting them for the public to vote on. One such deal caught our eye.

The proposal: The A's receive Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Geraldo Perdomo while the Arizona Diamondbacks get Seth Brown. According to the model that BTV uses, Arizona actually comes out ahead in this trade due to the money they'd be shedding.

They have Montgomery (-9.7), E. Rod (-26.6), and Perdomo (33.3) equating to -3 total value, while Brown by himself is a -1.2. With the A's looking to add some payroll this winter, it's hard to see them turning this trade down, especially given that Brown doesn't necessarily have a full-time role on the 2025 Athletics and could even be a non-tender candidate. Based on pure talent, the A's come out way ahead.

As far as the money goes, Monty is owed $22.5 million in '25 and then is set to hit the free agent market. If the A's aren't in contention, they could even flip him for prospects at the deadline if he's back to the 2023 version of himself.

Rodriguez is owed $60 million over the next three seasons and has a mutual option for $17 million in 2028. He'll be entering his age 32 season next year, and is coming off a season where he pitched just 50 innings and held a 5.04 ERA. When he's healthy he can flirt with being a top-of-the-rotation starter, and the $20 million price tag per season isn't a huge ask for the kind of production he could provide. Then again, he can also throw up some clunkers like he did last season.

The big piece of this deal that mostly evened out the value is Perdomo, who is estimated to make $2.1 million in arbitration this winter, and then go through the arbitration process two more times before hitting free agency following the 2027 campaign.

Perdomo broke out with the bat in 2024, hitting .273 with a .344 OBP, 2.0 fWAR, and a 101 wRC+ (100 is league average). Three key attributes for him are that he doesn't strike out (90th percentile), doesn't chase (96th percentile), and doesn't whiff (98th).

He's played mostly shortstop with the Diamondbacks, but has a little experience at third base, a position of need for the A's this winter. In essence they'd be getting a solid option at the hot corner and two veterans with long track records coming off down years in exchange for a platoon bat that can handle the outfield or first base.

On paper this trade looks close, and if Montgomery and Rodriguez don't turn things around in 2025, this deal would be a dud, but there is also very little chance that a deal like this would happen based mostly off the optics. This would be a huge signal to the Arizona fanbase that they're not going to be trying too hard in 2025, and they'd be punctuating that by selling low on a pair of starters.

We've said it a few times in recent weeks, but Baseball Trade Values is a very helpful tool to help you get an idea of what a trade could perhaps look like. But sometimes you also have to use a some intuition to sniff out if a deal is actually feasible or not.

This one does not seem realistic.

Though, we have mentioned Montgomery's name as a potential trade target for the A's to go after this offseason, and even mentioned Seth Brown as a potential part of that deal. But getting Perdomo and Rodriguez as well seems like a bit too much.