Seth Brown and the Shift

The shift will be no more in 2023, so how might that impact Seth Brown?

There was speculation earlier in the off-season that the A's might be listening to offers for Seth Brown, because the A's tend to listen on just about everyone. GM David Forst was asked about Brown by MLB Network at the GM Meetings last month, and he said "Seth is a popular guy for sure." 

The way he said it seemed like teams are asking, but that the A's would rather hold onto him, at least for the time being. Part of the reason for that stance, if it is in fact their stance, is because the shift is going away for the upcoming season. 

Now this doesn't mean that teams won't find a way to have shift-like infields, with one middle infielder playing just to the left or right of second--that's still allowed. But it does mean that teams won't be able to have their second baseman playing on the grass, essentially in right field with a left-hander like Seth Brown at the plate. The new rule says that teams must have two players on either side of second with their feet on the dirt. 

There will likely be a team or two that brings in their outfielder a few steps to try and pick up some of that slack, but at the risk of the ball being hit over the fielder's head. It's going to be an interesting learning experience for each club.

So with that in mind, the A's may not be apt to trade Seth Brown just yet. He's entering his age 30 season and finished last year with 25 homers and a 117 wRC+, 17% better than league average. He also had a 147 wRC+ after the All Star break. 

So how could the shift impact Seth Brown in 2023? This could go one of a couple of ways.

Back in 2021, when Brown was not facing the shift he had a wOBA of .251. That alone would rank him second to last in baseball among qualified hitters, and behind Elvis Andrus who had a .270. The good news is that he was much better when he was facing the shift, putting up a .328 wOBA, which was in line with Andrew Benintendi, Austin Hays, and Ian Happ in 2021. 

This past season, those numbers flipped. When he was facing the shift he put up a .314 wOBA, which again sees him raking like Austin Hays, and joining them was Luis Rengifo. The reason the A's may want to see how 2023 plays out? When he wasn't being shifted, which was just 11.4% of the time, he put up a .393 wOBA, which is the exact same as Freddie Freeman's 2022 season. Freeman's .393 also ranked 5th in all of baseball among qualified bats. 

So if there isn't going to be a shift, and Brownie is mashing the ball like he did in 2022, then his value could skyrocket pretty quickly. He'll be entering his first year of arbitration in 2024, and won't be a free agent until after the 2026 season. 

If this does come to fruition, then the question will be: Do the A's move him at the elevated price tag next winter, or do they hold onto him for their next run? 

It could all depend on the offers they receive, but it sounds like teams are seeing these same numbers and want to add him to their rosters before he really breaks out.