Would Matt Chapman Have Made More in Deal Offered by Oakland A's?

After testing free agency, the third baseman has signed on with the San Francisco Giants

Not so long ago, when the A's were still rooted in Oakland, they offered third baseman Matt Chapman a contract extension for ten years and $150 million. According to Ken Rosenthal in The Athletic, this deal was rejected by Chapman after the 2019 season. He was coming off of another stellar season with the A's, racking up 5.7 fWAR, and he was 25% better than the league with the bat. 

Things haven't gone quite as well for Chapman in the years since. He's still a solid defender and an above average bat in the lineup, but last year he was ten percent better than league average and worth 3.5 wins in his age 30 season. There are concerns about how he'll age, which is why the deal that he agreed to with the San Francisco Giants, three years and $54 million per Jon Heyman, looks to be a steal if he can still perform like he has even in recent seasons. 

Chapman's agreement with the Giants will reportedly pay him $20 million in 2024, $18 million in 2025, and $16 million in 2026, with opt-outs after the first two seasons. 

Hip surgery in 2020 seems to have diminished the third baseman's superhuman abilities a bit, but he's still a solid big-leaguer. He'll also be reunited with former manager Bob Melvin in San Francisco, which may help him get back to where he was when he was a member of the A's. 

But let's take a quick look at how much money Chapman has made in the time since he rejected that offer from the A's, and compare that to the deal that was on the table five years ago. 

He made $6,490,000 in his final year of arbitration with the A's in 2021, then signed a two-year deal for $25 million contract with the Blue Jays after the trade that took care of his final two years of arbitration and gave Toronto a known sum for their budget. Those three years in addition to the $54 million over the next three years if he doesn't opt out leaves Chappy at $85,490,000 over six seasons. 

Again, the A's offer was ten years and $150 million, which leaves Chapman's current projected earnings a bit short. $64,510,000 short in fact. 

That said, the total that he would need to make over the course of the following four years is very much attainable at $16,127,500 per season. The tricky part with getting a deal for four years and $64,510,000 is that he'd be entering his age 34 season when he tries to get it. 

The best way for Chapman to surpass the contract he was offered by Oakland would be to have a season like he did back in 2019 this coming year, opt out, and then get a big chunk of money in a year where teams aren't trying to freeze out Scott Boras. This is a big if, but if he has a big season in 2024 and is able to land a four year, $100 million deal next winter, he'd be in great shape to earn well above the Oakland offer after accumulating 131,490,000 over eight years with two more to go to reach $150 million. 

By no means is this supposed to be a knock on Chapman for not taking the deal in Oakland. You can make the argument that if he wanted to chase a ring or not have to deal with constant relocation questions that it would be worth it to play elsewhere even if he made a little less. 

Instead, it's almost impressive that the A's front office came up with a contract that seems to have properly valued Chapman ten years into the future. Granted, they offered it after he had put up a combined 12 fWAR the previous two seasons which is why that initial contract looked a bit low. 

Chapman is projected to be worth four WAR according to ZiPS this season, and given that he's set to make $20 million, that comes out to $5 million per WAR. Even at the WAR valuation that the Giants are paying him at (which is lower than the typical $8-10 million), the third baseman would have been worth $60 million over the 2018-19 seasons when the A's offered him his deal. 

Right now the A's offer has the upper hand, but with a solid year in 2024, Chappy still may have made the better choice in rejecting the team's offer all those years ago.