2 Key Factors That Will Decide the Blue Jays-Angels Series

Offensive momentum and key pitching matchups will make or break the Jays' chances at Angel Stadium.

© Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports

In a non-COVID season, the Blue Jays typically play two series a year against the Angels. During the portions at Angel Stadium lately, Toronto has been perfectly average, turning in an 11-11 record since the start of 2015.

Barely clinging to the final wild-card spot in the AL and chasing a surging Los Angeles squad, the Blue Jays can’t afford a series loss or even a split. West coast trips pose unique challenges, but Toronto would be wise to snap out if its mediocre stretch and aim to grab three of four.

Probable Pitching Matchups

THURS - Hyun Jin Ryu vs. Shohei Ohtani

FRI - Alek Manoah vs. Chase Silseth

SAT - Yusei Kikuchi vs. Michael Lorenzen

SUN - José Berríos vs. Patrick Sandoval

Here are a few things worth watching during this four-game set in Los Angeles.

How the offensive outburst carries over

Tuesday’s 8-1 win over the Cardinals felt much more pivotal than it should have.

“Everybody needed this day,” manager Charlie Montoyo told reporters, including Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith. “It was great to see the offense come alive.”

Danny Jansen clubbed two homers and the offense picked up 12 hits and scored its most runs in a game since May 7. The outburst was excellent, but Toronto’s patience at the plate was also notable. Inside the Blue Jays’ Mitch Bannon broke down the discipline aspect recently, and if the club wants to keep winning, it needs to continue following that model.

As a #NextLevel #BlueJays fan waking up on Tuesday, May 25, here’s why you should be very, very excited about what might lie ahead:

How often Vladimir Guerrero is chasing outside the strike zone:

Before St. Louis Series: 33%

St. Louis Series: 6% pic.twitter.com/R8xpwwTi9Q

— Chris Black (@DownToBlack) May 25, 2022

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer, and Raimel Tapia have all struggled this season with some variation of either chase or whiff rate. The Blue Jays are swinging and missing more in 2022, which isn’t ideal for when they face off Thursday against Shohei Ohtani, who ranks in the 96th percentile for whiff rate as a pitcher.

How Toronto handles Ohtani’s nasty stuff will set the tone for the series. Can the Jays recognize the sweeping slider out of the hand? Can they lay off the diving splitter? Each at-bat will be a battle the Blue Jays are capable of winning. Now it’s time to execute.

How well the Jays rotation neutralizes Angels superstar sluggers

The Angels carry two of the game’s best offensive players on their roster this season: Mike Trout and… Taylor Ward? Ward, an Angels first-round pick in 2015, has exploded out of nowhere to rapidly become one of the hottest players in baseball this season, batting .370, slugging .713, and leading MLB in OBP (.481) and OPS (1.194).

Together, Ward and Trout, who leads the league in OPS+ (218), have formed an unstoppable dynamic duo atop a lineup that also features last year’s AL MVP, Ohtani, and two-time Silver Slugger Anthony Rendon.

The Angels are a legitimately formidable foe for Toronto’s solid pitching staff, which despite putting up strong numbers, has struggled with hard-hit percentage (24th in MLB) and average exit velocity allowed (23rd). With Kevin Gausman not scheduled to pitch in this series, Blue Jays pitchers will need to be on their A-game.

Since no one is counting on Ryu outdueling Ohtani Thursday, and Alek Manoah should shove again on Friday, Yusei Kikuchi’s start on Saturday could be a defining moment for this series. Kikuchi, who played three years in the AL West before joining Toronto, will face a batting order that knows him very well.

In seven career starts versus the Angels, Kikuchi is 1-4 with a 10.92 ERA, by far his worst split against any opponent. The sample size isn’t small, either—in 29.2 innings, Los Angeles has tagged him for 36 runs, including 12 home runs. Oof.

While Kikuchi isn’t the exact same pitcher as in years past, the Halos obviously have a good feel for his stuff. How the 30-year-old attacks Los Angeles’ lineup will be worth watching, considering it’s probably his toughest challenge of the season.