First Draft: Blue Jays 2023 Opening Day Roster Projection

What will the Blue Jays' 2023 Opening Day roster look like with the season a month away?

Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

In 35 days, the Blue Jays have a baseball game that counts.

They'll play some largely unmeaningful games between then and now, which will help Toronto prepare and pare down the roster for that opening game against the Cardinals. But, at the onset of Spring Training, we can still take an initial stab at what Toronto's lineup and 26-man roster will look like for that March 30th opener:

The Lineup

RF George Springer
SS Bo Bichette
1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
C Alejandro Kirk
LF Daulton Varsho
3B Matt Chapman
DH Brandon Belt
2B Whit Merrifield
CF Kevin Kiermaier

Toronto's lineup and hitting core are basically locked up entering Spring Training. Whit Merrifield, Cavan Biggio, and Santiago Espinal can battle it out for playing time against right-handed pitching, but they're all going to break camp on the MLB roster and the rest of the depth chart is all but set.

The above lineup assumes long-time Cards veteran Adam Wainwright will get the nod in St. Louis' first game. With a righty on the mound, Brandon Belt is expected to slot in regularly at DH and George Springer will often shift over to right field so Kevin Kiermaier can man his primary position.

Against lefties, Toronto's lineup choices get a little more complicated. Barring another addition to the roster, Merrifield will start in left field often with Espinal manning second base. Kirk and Danny Jansen will probably both be in many lineups against southpaws, with one at DH and one behind the plate. Having Varsho's OF/C versatility allows Toronto to start a backstop at DH without worry.

The Bench

INF/OF Cavan Biggio
INF Santiago Espinal
C Danny Jansen
OF Nathan Lukes

Toronto's only true position battle on the hitting side this spring comes for the final bench spot. 

Biggio and Merrifield have experience in OF spots, but with just three regular outfielders on the roster, it makes sense for Toronto to carry another with this final spot. As of now, I've given that role to Nathan Lukes, who was Toronto's final cut ahead of 2022 Opening Day.

In 2022, Lukes posted solid Triple-A numbers for the second consecutive year without earning a call-up, hitting .285 with a .364 OBP and 11 homers. He also stole 20 bases for the Bisons last year and can play strong defense at all three outfield positions. Lukes would be a near-lock for this 26th spot if he were a right-handed hitter, but his reverse splits (hit .333 v LHP in 2022) should fill in Toronto’s outfield gaps.

The Jays should have two 40-man roster spots open up after Hyun Jin Ryu and Chad Green are placed on the 60-day IL, meaning they'll have the flexibility to add some more players to the expanded roster ahead of the season. This opens things for a non-roster right-handed outfielder like Wynton Bernard (or another free agent addition) to win the final spot, too.

Next Up - Hitters
OF Wynton Bernard
INF/OF Otto Lopez
1B/OF Spencer Horwitz
INF Addison Barger

The Rotation

RHP Kevin Gausman
RHP Alek Manoah
RHP Chris Bassitt
RHP José Berríos
LHP Yusei Kikuchi

Let's skip past the first four—they'll all be Blue Jays on March 30th. Toronto's most significant camp battle is for the final rotation spot, as we outlined in questions the Jays still need to answer, and Yusei Kikuchi seems to have an early edge over Mitch White.

While Kikuchi was better after transitioning into the bullpen late in the season (4.91 ERA and 16.2 K/9), Toronto's pitching depth could really use some even ordinary innings out of him as a starter. In his three seasons with the Mariners from 2019 to 2021, Kikuchi compiled a 4.97 ERA and 4.93 FIP across 70 starts—marks the Jays would probably take from the fifth starter spot.

The Bullpen

RHP Jordan Romano
RHP Erik Swanson
LHP Tim Mayza
RHP Anthony Bass
RHP Yimi García
RHP Adam Cimber
RHP Trevor Richards
RHP Mitch White

Toronto's bullpen is another spot devoid of any drama this spring, with all eight roles essentially spoken for by proven vets or determined by option years. Trevor Richards and whoever loses out on fifth starter (in this case White) are both without minor-league options and will have first crack at the final two bullpen spots to start the year.

A lefty like Paul Fry could compete for a job with Mayza as the only current southpaw reliever on the roster, but Richards was effectively deployed as that second lefty at times last year. With his changeup dropping away from lefties, that side of the platoon hit just .237 against him in 2022 and left-handers own a career .230 BA vs Richards.

Next Up - Pitchers
RHP Nate Pearson
RHP Zach Thompson
RHP Zach Pop
RHP Trent Thornton
LHP Paul Fry