Is Bullpen Really a Blue Jays Trade Deadline Need?

Breaking down if the Blue Jays need bullpen help at the 2023 MLB trade deadline and how they'd address the need, if so.

Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Recently, the Blue Jays trade deadline needs have been pretty clear. But with six weeks until the 2023 event, Toronto's avenues for improvement are fuzzier than usual.

Sure, there's a hole in the rotation now, but Alek Manoah and Hyun Jin-Ryu are on the way (in theory). Yes, there's a need for more offense, but is there an open lineup spot to slot a new bat in?

So, attention naturally turns to the bullpen. But is another leverage reliever really a Blue Jays deadline need?

Over the past few seasons, adding another late-game hurler was a clear deadline obligation for GM Ross Atkins. Last year, Toronto's relievers ranked 11th in high-leverage ERA before the trade deadline. In 2021, they ranked 29th.

But this year, the Blue Jays bullpen has been airtight in big moments, rocking MLB's fourth-best high-leverage ERA. The Jays' four most-used pitchers in leverage (Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, Nate Pearson, and Tim Mayza) all have ERAs under 3.0 and FIPs below 3.70. 

In previous years, it's been Romano and then question marks. But this year, the Jays have an actual bullpen 'big four' (watch out Miami Heat). The Jays have seven blown saves on the season and a 76% save conversion rate, both of which are second-best in baseball.

So, bullpen aid isn't a need, right? Case closed. Well.... despite that lock-down relief from the leverage relievers, Toronto's overall bullpen production is much closer to league average. And that's because of struggles in the other innings.

In medium leverage — the late three-run leads, the tied fifth innings — the Jays have the 24th-ranked relief ERA (4.53). Because of the inconsistency of Adam Cimber, Yimi García, and the now DFA'd Anthony Bass, those middle innings have been a collective struggle for Toronto's 'pen. Closing out wins has been no problem. It's keeping games alive that's been the challenge.

So yes, bullpen is somewhat of a Blue Jays deadline requirement. But not in the way it has been the past two summers. The Jays don't need to add that swing-and-miss weapon to help out Romano. They just need a little stability in the sixth inning.

There's a fair argument to be made that Atkins should still add another eighth-inning guy, building out the super 'pen to thrive in October. Bring in Aroldis Chapman, Liam Hendricks, or Scott Barlow. Turn the four-headed monster into five.

But, there's an equally fair argument to go a bit cheaper in the bullpen and add a middle reliever — think less Hendricks, more Joe Kelly. Then, take your big swing somewhere else: add the big bat or guarantee a strong playoff rotation.

Because, for the first time in this competitive window, bullpen help isn't Toronto's glaring need on trade deadline day.