How Can the Blue Jays Clinch a Playoff Spot?
October inches closer.
With Monday's win over the Yankees, the Blue Jays cut their magic number down to three. That means any combination of three Jays wins and Baltimore Orioles losses clinches Toronto a spot in the postseason. As that 'magic number' counts down, the Blue Jays approach a clinching scenario, able to pop some champagne and celebrate in front of the home crowd at Rogers Centre.
With eight games left in the regular season, here are Toronto's potential clinching scenarios:
Quickest Clinch: Wednesday, September 28th
The earliest the Jays can clinch, by winning and getting help from Boston, is Wednesday. To reach that quickest clinch situation, the Jays would need any three of the following to occur:
1) Blue Jays beat the Yankees on Tuesday
2) Orioles lose to the Red Sox on Tuesday
3) Blue Jays beat the Yankees on Wednesday
4) Orioles lose to Red Sox on Wednesday
Even if they don't manage to clinch during this series against the Yankees, three more Blue Jays wins (or O's losses) for the rest of the season will lock up a playoff spot for Toronto.
What Can Go Wrong?
The Blue Jays have the Orioles on the brink, but there's still a mathematical chance Baltimore can catch Toronto and bump them out of the playoffs.
Even if the Jays don't win a game for the rest of the regular season, the Orioles would still have to finish 7-2 to surpass Toronto for the final Wild Card spot. If the Jays finish 3-6, they will clinch an October spot regardless of Baltimore's wins.
Can Toronto Still Win the AL East?
Technically, Toronto's chances to win the American League East division are still alive with Monday's victory. To keep that opportunity open, the Jays must sweep this three-game set against the Yankees and then finish the season with five more wins than the Yankees (going either 6-0 or 5-1).
Though they haven't technically clinched, the Yankees have a 100.0% chance of winning the division, per FanGraphs' playoff odds.
How The Jays Can Lock Up Home-Field Advantage
The Blue Jays, as of Tuesday, sit 2.5 games up on the Rays for the top Wild Card spot (and the home-field advantage that comes with it) and three games up on the Mariners. Both Seattle and Tampa have tiebreaker advantages over Toronto due to head-to-head records, meaning the Jays have to finish with more wins than those two teams to rank ahead of them.
Due to differences in games played, the Mariners would have to win four more games than Toronto from here on out to surpass the Jays for that top spot, and the Rays would have to win three.
For example, if the Jays were to finish 4-4 in their final 8 games:
- Seattle must finish 8-2 to surpass them for WC1
- Rays must finish 7-2 to surpass them for WC1
While the AL East is likely out of reach, the Jays still control their destiny to clinch a ticket to October and lock up an opening series at home, too.
Mitch Bannon is a baseball reporter for Sports Illustrated covering the Toronto Blue Jays and their minor league affiliates.Twitter: @MitchBannon