Should the Blue Jays Draft Closer Ben Joyce?
In September 2021, Nate Pearson threw the fastest pitch in Blue Jays history, a 101.8 MPH heater to New York's Tyler Wade.
Tennessee closer Ben Joyce could step in and top that record on day one.
A projected early-round selection in the 2022 MLB Draft, Joyce is the hardest-throwing pitcher in college baseball and maybe the most interesting prospect available in the upcoming selection show. He's not a viable option for Toronto's first pick—23rd overall—but with plenty of other early-round selections and a need for power in the 'pen both now and in the future, the Jays could take a shot on the hard-throwing Joyce.
The Case For Joyce
The Blue Jays are uniquely positioned to draft a player like Joyce.
Sure, every team could use a young flamethrower that can soon step into the big league bullpen. But the Jays have that need more than most, are trying to win now, and have the draft picks that make a Joyce pick feasible.
With five of the first 100 picks, including three selections from 60-80, Toronto has a few cracks at Joyce right in the range he's expected to go. Joyce is Baseball America's No. 83 player and MLB.com's 112th. Toronto could select him at say, 77 or 78, without jeopardizing the rest of their draft, still taking the long-term, upside plays with other picks.
When it comes to the player, the fit is obvious. Joyce has been touching 100 since his senior year of high school, is the hardest throwing college reliever ever, and the heater may not even be his best pitch. Mixing in a plus-plus slider, the 20-year-old struck out 14.8 batters per nine in his 32.1 innings of work for Tennessee this year.
Baseball America ranks both his fastball and slider as 70-grade pitches (two of the best in the class), and ranks him, overall, as a 50-grade prospect with extreme volatility. Like fellow Volunteers hurler Garrett Crochet, who was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and pitched in the White Sox bullpen that year, Joyce could scale the minors and make an MLB impact as soon as this season for the Jays.
The Case Against
There are red flags with Joyce, like most other prospects available at his range in the draft. Even at the college level, he wasn't an automatic out. While his heater blew plenty of hitters away, he still let up 18 hits and five homers (1.4 HR/9) with Tennessee this season, and grades out with about average control.
There are also concerns with the righty's durability. He had Tommy John surgery in fall 2020, though that's not uncommon for prospect pitchers, and has also dealt with growth-plate and elbow issues in his early college days. Across his 2019-20 season with Walters State Community College and 2022 with Tennessee, Joyce has just 53 college innings in his career. While that lack of workload could be a positive for his long-term health, Joyce has also never proven he’s capable of a full-season relief workload. He pitched on back-to-back days just once for the Volunteers, and even those consecutive appearances were just one out each.
Taking an early-round, full-time reliever is pretty risky, too, even one who throws 105. A Baseball America report found that of the 20 college relievers drafted in the first five rounds from 2013 to 2017 only two, Michael Lorenzen and Corey Knebel, have had "significant MLB Careers." And with Lorenzen, his selection was helped by two-way and starting pitcher potential.
Joyce's two most recent RP draft comps, Chicago's Crochet (2020) and Washington's Matt Cronin (2019) have had solid success, but aren't necessarily delivering on the upside equated to their draft selection. When on the mound the 22-year-old Crochet has been an elite reliever for Chicago (2.82 ERA, 2.63 FIP), but the lefty underwent season-ending Tommy John surgery during 2022 Spring Training. The Nationals have been extremely careful with Cronin, limiting his innings and moving him slowly up the minors despite relief success, and the lefty just recently reached Triple A.
Taking a reliever limits the upside on an early-round pick, but it might be a risk the Jays are in a position to take. They need some fire in the MLB 'pen and in the farm system, and the Jays are a rare competing team with the draft picks to take this kind of risk on a flamethrowing prospect like Joyce.
Mitch Bannon is a baseball reporter for Sports Illustrated covering the Toronto Blue Jays and their minor league affiliates.Twitter: @MitchBannon