The Good and Bad From 2023 Blue Jays' First 5 Games
Congrats, we're 3% through the Blue Jays' 2023 season.
With five games, one turn through the rotation, and two Toronto wins behind us, the Jays have flashed both good and bad. Let's parse through the extremes to figure out what matters for the next 157 or so games:
The Good: Chapman's Scorching Start
Matt Chapman subtly bounced his foot before lashing out with the bat, punching a liner through the hole in Tuesday's game in Kansas City. The single was Chapman's first of three hits in the contest, adding to his franchise-record 11 knocks through the opening five games of a season.
The tapping toe is new this year, a Bichette-inspired variation on Chapman's previous leg kick. Spring returns were questionable, with the 3B hitting .196 in 51 play appearances, but things clicked when the games started to matter.
Chapman's hoping the approach will help cut down on swing-and-miss and help him spray the ball around the park. Last season, Chapman was pure pull, yanking 24 of his 27 homers to the left of center. Through five games, Toronto's hot corner already has four hits to the opposite field, as many as he had in his first 27 games last year. With Chapman now months away from free agency, both he and the Blue Jays would love this heater to linger.
The Bad: Bassitt and Berríos Debuts
José Berríos and interim pitching coach Jeff Ware sat at the end of the Blue Jays dugout bench, sliding through an IPad looking for answers. It was a similar aura of disbelief that haunted the righty for most of 2022.
Berríos began his 2023 season with 5.2 innings, nine hits, and eight earned runs against the Royals. The outing flashed the very same problems that dogged him a year ago—shaky fastball location, big innings, and hard hits in bunches.
Chris Bassitt's first outing was similarly calamitous. Toronto's newest starter watched two of his first three pitches slapped back over the outfield wall, allowing four homers and nine earned runs against the Cardinals. Bassitt's problems were a bit more diagnosable than Berríos', with velocity down on all of his pitches and anything left over the plate being crushed. Diminished stuff and substandard control don't mix well.
“I’m at a loss for words a little bit,” Bassitt told the media, including Toronto Star's Gregor Chisolm. “I’ve never had a game like this where six different pitches were getting hit hard."
Yes, it's unreasonable to react to one bad start. But, Berríos and Bassit's rough outings built on preexisting fears. For Berríos, it's the fear that his 2022 is the new normal. For Bassitt, it's that the velocity and bat-missing he lacked in Spring Training may never return.
Both guys have track records of reliable dominance, and could reasonably be top-of-rotation arms for the Blue Jays if things go right in 2023. But, neither showed that potential in their first starts of the year.
The Good: Vladdy's Swing Decisions
The difference between Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s 2021 and 2022 is the difference between an MVP and an All-Star. We're splitting lofty hairs, but it's a gap Guerrero's trying to close this season.
Everyone knows Guerrero is at his best when he avoids grounders and launches liners in the air, but those are both products of his approach. In 2022, teams threw Guerrero fewer pitches in the zone and more breaking stuff, successfully daring him to chase down and away.
Guerrero's always been a threat to walk, but the 24-year-old is trying to take his zone command to another level this year. Through five games, he's in complete control—just look at the swing vs take chart (below) from Sunday's game against the Cardinals. Guerrero's struck out only once and walked five times so far. His O-Swing rate (swings on pitches outside the zone) sits at 21.7%, a mark that would've been third-best in MLB last year.
If pitchers adjust, putting pitches in the zone, Guerrero's proven he can crush those. And if they don't, he should be happy to watch the balls go by, taking his free stroll down to first.
Pitches Vlad swung against (left) vs took (right) in Sunday's game against the Cardinals.
The Bad: Running Wild
The talk from Dunedin this spring often centered on how baseball's new base-running rules (bigger bases, limited throw overs) could help the Jays. Guys like Bo Bichette, Whit Merrifield, and Daulton Varsho were set to take advantage, swiping bags and causing chaos on the bases.
But, there are 29 other teams hoping to do the same. Opponents are five-for-five in stolen base attempts against Toronto so far this season, with three against Alejandro Kirk and two on Danny Jansen.
Toronto's catching tandem both ranked about league average in caught-stealing rate last year, and neither was particularly high on the pop-time leaderboards. With league-wide SB success way up to start the year, teams will test Toronto's backstops more than ever. Through Tuesday, five American League teams have at least six stolen bases in their opening games. The Orioles seem particularly poised to test catchers, with 11 swipes through five contests.
