Japanese Stars Present Blue Jays With Free Agent Options
Beyond the eye-popping household names of baseball's free agency—Aaron Judge, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Correa—there will be a few names unfamiliar to most MLB fans.
Three of those names belong to the latest Japanese stars who will attempt to come over from Nippon Professional Baseball this offseason. The success rate of recent NPB transfers varies, ranging from Shohei Ohtani to Shun Yamaguchi. Most recently, Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki signed from the Hiroshima Toyo Carp, inking an $85 million contract with Chicago last winter.
The top NPB players attempting to land with MLB squads this offseason are SP Kodai Senga, OF Masataka Yoshida, and SP/RP Shintaro Fujinami, and all three look like fits for the Blue Jays:
SP Kodai Senga
One of the best pitchers in Japan, Senga will come to MLB after a decade of NPB dominance and a particularly strong 2022. He finished second in ERA in the Pacific League this year (1.89) and third in strikeouts (159).
Teams will be drawn to the 29-year-old’s high-90s fastball, average slider, and blistering splitter (see below). If you want to identify a few red flags with Senga they would be durability and command. He's pitched more than 150 innings just twice in his 11 NPB seasons and has a career BB/9 of 3.4.
There isn't an industry consensus on Senga's range of MLB outcomes, as with most NPB players coming to MLB. His raw stuff and elite fastball mitigate risk, with the floor of a high-leverage reliever. But whatever team signs him will likely see Senga as a mid-rotation starter, or better.
Jays GM Ross Atkins told MLB Network's Jon Morosi the organization has a "strong relationship" with Senga's agent, Joel Wolfe, and Atkins expects to be in touch with the righty's camp.
While Senga is likely to get at least a four-year contract, and upwards of $80 million in total commitment, he will not come with an attached posting fee, as many NPB transfers do.
OF Masataka Yoshida
The two pitchers on this list might be more clear sign-and-play options for the Jays this winter, but Yoshida brings everything they'd want in a hitting addition. It may take some juggling and a major trade to fit another outfielder on the roster, but for the Jays it may be worth it.
Yoshida is left-handed, with elite contact skills, and Votto-esque command of the strike zone. He had a nearly 2:1 walk-to-strikeout ratio and a .449 OBP in NPB last year. Over his seven seasons in NPB, the 28-year-old slashed .327/.421/.539 with 135 HR in 762 games.
The Orix Buffaloes haven't formally announced that Yoshida will be posted this winter, but if he is, the outfielder will have over a month to negotiate with MLB clubs. Unlike Senga, whose free agency functions the same as any MLB player, a chunk of Yoshida's eventual contract will go back to Orix as a posting fee.
P Shintaro Fujinami
When Fujinami broke into NPB back in 2013 as a top prospect, he was hyped alongside another promising youngster, Shohei Ohtani.
He had early success, making four All-Star teams in his first five seasons with an ERA under 3.00. But since then, the right-hander has swung back and forth between rotations and bullpens and Japan’s major and minor leagues. The 28-year-old's main troubles have come with shaky command. He has a career 4.1 BB/9, but that number has reached as high as 6.3 in recent seasons.
In 2022, Fujinami had his best season in a while, leaning mainly on his high-velocity fastball/splitter combo—a pitch mix that's captivated the Jays in recent years. He's likely best suited for an MLB relief role, to hone in on those two pitches and attenuate the control problems.
Like Yoshida, any signing of Fujinami would come with a posting fee for Hanshin.
Mitch Bannon is a baseball reporter for Sports Illustrated covering the Toronto Blue Jays and their minor league affiliates.Twitter: @MitchBannon