Blue Jays Playoff Odds, Tiebreaker Scenarios, and October Obstacles
This is it.
One final homestand, six final games. The Toronto Blue Jays are playing meaningful September baseball, and they have an opportunity to earn more.
The Blue Jays Path to October:
On Tuesday morning the Blue Jays sit at 87-69, in fourth place in the American League East and a game behind the Boston Red Sox for the AL's final playoff spot. The AL Wildcard standings sit as follows:
New York Yankees, 89-67, +1
Boston Red Sox, 88-68, —
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Toronto Blue Jays, 87-69, -1
Seattle Mariners, 87-70, -1.5
Oakland Athletics, 85-72, -3.5
The Blue Jays, Yankees, and Red Sox all have six games remaining in the regular season. Toronto's final six contests come against the Yankees and Baltimore Orioles, in Toronto.
As of September 28th, the Blue Jays' playoff odds sit at:
FanGraphs: 28.0%
Baseball Reference: 44.5%
FiveThirtyEight: 41%
Toronto's easiest path to the postseason is to win out. If the Jays win their final six games they will jump at least the Yankees, earning a wildcard spot. Anything less than perfection and the Blue Jays will need help.
If the Blue Jays finish 4-2, they need either Boston to finish 3-3 or New York to finish 2-4 to earn a Game 163. If Toronto drops just one of their final six games, a Boston 4-2 or New York 3-3 finish would be good enough to earn Toronto a Game 163.
Toronto's pitching matchups for the final six games project as follows (* = unconfirmed):
Ryu vs New York - Sept. 28
Berríos vs New York - Sept. 29
Ray vs New York - Sept. 30
*Manoah vs Baltimore - Oct. 1
*Matz vs Baltimore - Oct. 2
*Ryu vs Baltimore - Oct. 3
The Competition:
The Red Sox, a game ahead of Toronto, have six games remaining against two sub-.500 teams:
3 @ Baltimore on September 28, 29, 30
3 @ Washington on October 1, 2, 3
The Red Sox will start Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi in the first two games of the Orioles series, lining up their two best starting pitchers for Game 162 (if relevant) and a Game 163 or Wildcard start.
The Yankees, two ahead of Toronto, finish the season with a tougher schedule, but at this point in the year strength of schedule doesn't really matter:
3 @ Toronto on September 28, 29, 30
3 vs Tampa Bay Rays on October 1, 2, 3
Toronto positioned themselves with an opportunity to control their own destiny at home against the Yankees, but they may require help from the Rays if they take only 2/3 against New York. As of Tuesday, the Rays are set to throw starters Luis Patiño, Shane McClanahan, and Shane Baz against the Yankees to finish the season. But, Tampa Bay sit a game away from clinching the American League's best record, leaving little to play for during the final series of 2021.
The Tiebreakers:
With five teams within five games and six contests or fewer games to go, there are plenty of paths to a playoff spot tie after 162. There are no head-to-head or run differential tiebreaks in Major League Baseball, so extra games would be played. The tiebreaker scenarios (even some crazy five-team ties) have been laid out by ESPN's Jeff Passan, but we'll outline the Blue Jay relevance here:
1) Two-Team Tie
HOW: If the Blue Jays finish tied with either any other team for the second wildcard spot
TIEBREAK: There would be a Game 163 tiebreaker game, hosted by the team with the better head-to-head record during the regular season. The Blue Jays would play at Boston if tied with the Red Sox, or home against New York if tied with the Yankees.
2) Three-Team Tie
HOW: The Blue Jays finish 5-1, the Yankees finish 3-3, and Red Sox finish 4-2
TIEBREAK: With a three-team tie, each team is seeded by head-to-head records, giving each franchise a choice in the tiebreaker ‘tournament.’ The Red Sox would be seeded first, Blue Jays second, and Yankees third. Selecting the expected roles, the tiebreak scenario would play out like:
Game 1: Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Game 2: Loser of Game 1 @ Yankees
Win Game 1 and you host the AL Wildcard game. Win Game 2 and you go on the road in the AL Wildcard game. Lose Game 2 and you’re eliminated.
3) Four Team Tie
HOW: Toronto, New York, Boston all finish with 92 wins (in the above scenario) and the Mariners win their final five games
TIEBREAK: Two head-to-head games deciding the two AL Wildcard teams.
Mitch Bannon is a baseball reporter for Sports Illustrated covering the Toronto Blue Jays and their minor league affiliates.Twitter: @MitchBannon