Breaking Down Blue Jays-Rangers Deadline Trade Packages
The 2021 MLB Trade Deadline is just over a week away.
Toronto Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins made it clear this week the team will be looking to buy on July 30th. Several teams match up well with a number of the Blue Jays' biggest needs (Cubs, Pirates, Twins), but none more than the Texas Rangers.
In discussion with Inside the Rangers beat reporter Chris Halicke, details of some potential deadline offers (and counter offers) between Texas and Toronto were hashed out. Packages included offers for outfielder Joey Gallo, starting pitcher Kyle Gibson, and reliever Ian Kennedy.
Joey Gallo Offer(s):
1) INF/OF Cavan Biggio (MLB) + INF Orelvis Martinez (A) for Gallo
2) INF Jordan Groshans (AA) + RHP CJ Van Eyk (A+) for Gallo
Mitch Bannon (Blue Jays reporter):
For arguably the most valuable hitting asset on deadline day, a 26-year-old defensively versatile hitter with plenty of control like Biggio and a rising top 100 prospect like Martinez seems like a bar-setting offer.
If Texas has no interest in MLB assets, Groshans is a clear top 100 guy who could be the core of a prospect-based offer, as he may be displaced on a future Jays team with plenty of infield prospects.
Gallo Counter Offer:
OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (MLB) + INF Jordan Groshans (AA) or RHP Simeon Woods Richardson (AA) + INF Orelvis Martinez (A) for Gallo + Kennedy
Chris Halicke (Rangers reporter):
This sounds like an ambitious counter-offer, but let me break it down.
A contract extension with Joey Gallo is not off the table for the Rangers. In fact, it’s a real possibility. Gallo has publicly stated a strong desire to remain in a Rangers uniform. Therefore, the Rangers need to be blown away by a trade package.
Cavan Biggio would serve very little purpose for the Rangers’ short-term and long-term plans. While the Rangers don’t have much impact talent in their farm system, they have a plethora of infield options that will start getting looks in the big leagues next season, including current No. 1 prospect Josh Jung, who also plays third base.
Gurriel Jr. would help recoup the loss of Gallo in the outfield while Groshans and Martinez give the Rangers two exciting prospects — one who will see the big leagues soon and one who is still a few years away. The Rangers have also been interested in controllable assets like Gurriel Jr. Gallo would upgrade the Blue Jays’ outfield for at least two playoff runs and Ian Kennedy would help sure up the bullpen for a run this season.
The Rangers need to shoot high when teams ask about Gallo. Plus, the Padres might be calling with an offer we can’t refuse.
Bannon (Blue Jays reporter):
The sticking point on this offer for the Blue Jays would be the inclusion of Orelvis Martinez alongside another top prospect. Moving Martinez, who has .941 OPS in Single-A, and one of SWR or Jordan Groshans would slash the top of Toronto's prospect depth for just 1.5 years of control. One of Groshans or Woods Richardson could certainly move in a deadline blockbuster but there isn't a player on the market that would warrant that kind of spending for a Toronto team still outside the playoffs.
Though Toronto would likely rather move Randal Grichuk, it makes baseball sense to make Lourdes Gurriel Jr. available in talks for a multi-year batlike Gallo.
If the Jays plan on making a big offensive splash this deadline, the general combination of MLB assets and prospects tossed out would make a lot of sense. But something like Gurriel Jr., Woods Richardson/Groshans, and Otto Lopez/Adam Kloffenstein may prove more palatable.
Decision: Not this year.
Kyle Gibson Offer:
RHP Adam Kloffenstein (A+) + RHP Bowden Francis (AAA)
Bannon (Blue Jays reporter):
It is difficult to find a comparable trade piece from the last few years to Gibson — rarely do controllable starters in their mid-30s have a career year and find themselves on the block. Kloffenstein is a recent first-round pick, who is probably in the league-wide top 150-200 prospect range. Francis is a lower ceiling upper-minors arm who the Jays recently acquired in the Rowdy Tellez trade.
Gibson Counter Offer:
INF Orelvis Martinez (A) + P Thomas Hatch (MLB) for P Kyle Gibson + OF Julio Pablo Martinez
Halicke (Rangers reporter):
The Blue Jays may feel this is too steep of an ask for a starting pitcher who is having a career year. Martinez is trending up and may not be available if Gibson was offered by himself. I’ve attached Julio Pablo Martinez, who was the Rangers No. 2 prospect on Baseball America just two years ago, as a sweetener.
Gibson is only owed $7 million next season, which makes him valuable even if he reverts back to a mid- or back-of-the-rotation starter. The Rangers will be seeking prospects who could help give a jolt to their system, which is why I’m asking for Martinez. Thomas Hatch is a controllable pitcher that could compete for innings in Arlington now, which is the type of players the Rangers have acquired in recent years.
Bannon (Blue Jays reporter):
Martinez is one of the fastest rising prospects in Toronto’s system, but in a thin starting pitching market like this year’s, a player like Gibson will almost certainly take an organizational top-10 guy like him. If Martinez isn't untouchable, I think Toronto’s decision on this offer would come down to the valuation on Hatch.
The team has been adamant about keeping Hatch as a starting pitching, only calling him up for the first time this season to make a since-rained-out spot start against the Red Sox. If the Blue Jays see Hatch as a guy with mid-rotation upside, they likely won’t include him for a year and a bit of Gibson.
Given that both the initial and counter offer here include a Top 10 Blue Jays prospect and an upper-minors starter, the offers don’t seem that far from ironing out the details of a deal.
Decision: Maybe there's a middle-ground prospect between Martinez and Kloffenstein (INF Miguel Hiraldo?), but no for now.
Ian Kennedy Offer:
RHP Patrick Murphy (MLB) + INF Tanner Morris (A+) for RP Ian Kennedy
Bannon (Blue Jays reporter):
This is the type of trade that happens four to five times a deadline — an expiring veteran late-inning reliever for fliers the acquiring organization likes. Murphy is a high-ranked guy on some prospect lists who the Jays have tried to shuttle between Triple-A and the MLB, but he hasn't latched onto leverage innings.
Morris is the upside here, a fifth-round pick in 2019, the infielder is unranked on most Jays Top 30 prospect lists, but sits around the 40-50 range. In 59 A+ games this year he has a .809 OPS.
Halicke (Rangers reporter):
While I don’t necessarily have a counter-offer for Kennedy, I can’t imagine he’ll bring back a top 10 prospect from an organization like the Blue Jays, so Murphy seems like a reasonable get. It’s all but certain Kennedy will be traded, so it will come down to which contender wants to pay the most for a veteran reliever.
Mitch Bannon is a baseball reporter for Sports Illustrated covering the Toronto Blue Jays and their minor league affiliates.Twitter: @MitchBannon