3 Crucial Numbers to Track for the 2022 Toronto Blue Jays
At the end of the regular season, there's only one number that matters: wins.
But sometimes even a lot of wins—let's say 91—still isn't good enough. So, instead of living and dying in the W column, here are a few other crucial numbers to track this season to gauge the success of the 2022 Blue Jays:
17% K-BB%
Hat tip to Blue Jays' director of pitching development Matt Buschmann for this one.
On screens hanging over Toronto's clubhouse in Dunedin, Fla., a pitching leaderboard tracks Toronto's strikeout rate minus walk rate with the goal written in bold lettering: 17%.
It may seem complicated, but the fundamentals of striking out more batters than you walk are the basis of other key pitching stats like FIP and SIERA, and an easy recipe for run prevention success. The Jays, who posted the seventh best K-BB% last year (16.8%), picked 17% as the target because only one team in baseball history posted a rate over 17% and didn't made the postseason (Cleveland, 2019).
"Every team that's 17% or higher during the regular season has made the postseason, like 99% of the time," Kevin Gausman said.
Gausman finished 15th in baseball in K-BB% last year at 22.8%.
78 Games Played
In his first season with the Blue Jays, George Springer played 78 games. When healthy, the production was undeniable—.907 OPS, 22 homers, 2.4 bWAR. But oblique, knee, and quad ailments cost him half the season.
Over the past five years, Springer's 162 game/650 PA pace is a 40 homer, 102 RBI, 5.3 bWAR season. He hasn't played over 140 games in a season during that time, but even 140 from Springer is All-Star stuff.
Toronto's front office worked the winter to replace the now-departed Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien, but an extra 60 games of George Springer would be an addition in itself. The Jays aren't leaning on Springer for a full 162 and they've left open the designated hitter spot to rotate him and others off their feet. We've already seen some early signs of load management with Springer easing his way into spring training, skipping the first week of game action.
The 32-year-old told Toronto Sun's Rob Longley he feels confident in his offseason preparation, he learned from the injury-plagued 2021, and he enters the season feeling good. What Springer is on the field is no question, the Jays just need him out there.
58 Holds
The Blue Jays finished the 2021 season nearly average in most bullpen stats: 16th in ERA, 15th in opponent wOBA, 13th in K-BB%, and 20th in FIP.
But anyone who watched the Blue Jays in 2021 knows the bullpen was anything but average. Toronto's relievers flashed both ends of the spectrum, touching greatness and disaster. No statistic encapsulates Toronto's midseason pen difficulties more than the team's 58 holds, the fewest in baseball.
Jordan Romano and Tim Mayza locked down the late innings but Toronto struggled to get the ball from the starter to the ninth at times. In high leverage situations in the 6th to 8th innings last year, Toronto relievers had a 11.91 ERA. After some costly blowups, Toronto's bullpen has a chip on its shoulder, Adam Cimber told Inside The Blue Jays' Ethan Diamandas.
"We all know last year we missed the playoffs by a game," Cimber said. "And as a bullpen I think we saw a few games slip away from us.”
Acquired midseason, Cimber and Trevor Richards sedated the middle inning issues in the second half and Yimi García joins the group as another option in leverage. Toronto's lineup and rotation remain the team's obvious strengths, but a higher holds total will mean the bullpen group is doing its job.
Bonus Stat: The Blue Jays intentionally walked the fewest batters in baseball last year (10). This doesn't seem to have any correlation to success, as Toronto tied in IBBs with the Tigers and Yankees, but now you know.
Mitch Bannon is a baseball reporter for Sports Illustrated covering the Toronto Blue Jays and their minor league affiliates.Twitter: @MitchBannon