3 X-Factors For Blue Jays Wild Card Series vs Twins
The Blue Jays are back where they want to be: playing meaningful playoff baseball in October.
After last year's postseason disappointment, the Jays reshuffled their roster to fit the baseball style needed to win this year. They loaded up the bullpen, went all-in on outfield defense, and doubled down on an already expensive starting rotation.
These three players will play a crucial role in determining if Toronto's bets pay off and they win a series this year:
1. Kevin Gausman
Since joining the Blue Jays two years ago, Kevin Gausman has been one of the American League’s best and most consistent starting pitchers. But, the Minnesota Twins have been his foil.
In four starts (19.2 IP) since joining Toronto, Gausman has allowed 10 earned runs to the Twins and lasted under five innings in half his outings. In two starts against the Twins this year, he’s let up nine walks — 16% of his entire season total. Even the righty acknowledged the Twins’ unexplainable success against him after a June start this year.
“The Twins, for whatever reason, yeah, drive me crazy,” said Gausman. “For whatever reason, my whole career has been a grind against them. I’ve had some good starts, but yeah."
There have been successful Gaus starts against Minyy, no doubt (5.1 IP, 8K, 1ER in late June this year). But, the Twins have been one of the few teams with consistent success against Toronto's splitter-chucking ace. For a Blue Jays team that can't afford many missteps in a best-two-of-three series, that's a scary reality for the presumptive Game 1 starter.
2. Brandon Belt
The Twins are going to show the Blue Jays plenty of right-handed pitching this week. Their three postseason starters are likely RHPs Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, and Joe Ryan. At the back of the bullpen, it’s more righties in Emilio Pagán, Louie Varland, and the flame-throwing Jhoan Duran.
So, plenty of pressure will fall on the Blue Jays' veteran righty masher: Brandon Belt. The 35-year-old's weighted runs created plus (146 wRC+) against righties this season ranks 16th in baseball, just a touch ahead of Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. In just 365 plate appearances, he has 19 homers against RHP.
A week ago, it looked like the Jays might enter October without Belt, as he was down with a back injury. But in the final days of the season the vet has come off the IL, instantly re-found his timing at the plate, and posted six hits and three homers in the final week. Belt looks ready for playoff baseball and the Blue Jays will need him.
3. Matt Chapman
Remember April? The robins were chirping, spring was springing, and Matt Chapman was absolutely raking.
In the first month of the regular season, Chapman was the best player in baseball — and that's no exaggeration. Toronto's third baseman hit .384 in the opening month, posting a 1.152 OPS with 20 extra-base hits in 20 games. In the months that followed, Chapman's put together just one thirty-day stretch with above-average offensive numbers and hasn't knocked in more than 11 extra-base hits in any other month.
In the final few days of the regular season, though, there were signs of some life in Chapman's bat. The 3B hit two homers and notched five hits in the final six games of the 2023 regular campaign. The resulting .758 OPS is nothing special, but we know exactly what Chapman looks like when he really gets hot.
"We were joking with him that it's April 30, not September," manager John Schneider said last week. "So yeah, he's swinging it really well right now."
If the pending free agent can somehow re-find that hot streak in October, or anything near it, he's the type of player who can single-handedly carry a team to the promised land.
Mitch Bannon is a baseball reporter for Sports Illustrated covering the Toronto Blue Jays and their minor league affiliates.Twitter: @MitchBannon