Blue Jays Will Go As Far As Rotation Takes Them

The Blue Jays' starting rotation entered Sunday with the most quality starts in baseball.

Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Every day, five men march down the foul line at Rogers Centre, around 20 minutes before first pitch.

The day's starter leads the pack, while the four other pitchers in Toronto's rotation fall in formation behind. The marching compadres are the Blue Jays' lifeblood early this season, determining the team's hot streaks and cold stretches. As goes the rotation, so go the 2023 Jays.

Every team is reliant on starting pitching, it's not some fresh revelation. But the 2023 Blue Jays are even more rotation ride-or-die than most. When the Blue Jays allow three or fewer runs, they're 21-3. When they let up four-plus, they're 3-13.

It shouldn’t be entirely surprising, either, as the Jays will pay their starting five over $66 million this year and have over $220 million locked up in the rotation through 2025. The lineup may be the team's core, but the starting pitching is where the money lies. 

Most days, that expensive rotation comes through for Toronto. The unit's 20 quality starts entered Sunday tied for the most in baseball. So too did the 51% QS percentage. In five of the Blue Jays' last six series, the rotation has combined for a collective ERA of 3.40 or lower.

“They’re obviously all different pitchers, but I think it gets a little bit contagious just like it can with can offense,” manager John Schneider said on the rotation earlier this season.

But, there have been a few rough starts, too. And when things go sideways for the starting five, it's been bad news for the Blue Jays. None of the Jays' starters have an ERA under seven in their losses. When the team trails after six innings, they have just three wins this year. 

Blue Jays starting pitcher ERAs in decisions this year (as of Saturday, May 13th)

A quick glance at the numbers won't tell you how crucial the rotation has been. Toronto’s starting staff ranks 12th in ERA (3.94), 13th in FIP (4.20), and 11th in batting average against (.243). But, the unit brings invaluable length. The Blue Jays' rotation ranked third in innings pitched entering Sunday, averaging 5.68 innings per outing. Last year's rotation ranked 19th in IP. 

When the starters work deep into games, the benefits trickle into the bullpen. The Blue Jays’ reliever FIP overall sits at 4.09, but that number drops down to 3.78 in the seventh inning or later (10th in MLB).

“It puts guys in the right spots out of the bullpen. It just allows those guys to get a little bit of a breather out there too,” Schneider said. “And I think it allows us to really settle into the game offensively.”

But, beyond the low ERA, the quality starts, and the heavy innings logged, the biggest strength Toronto's rotation has flashed early this season is health. No Blue Jays starter has missed a start yet this season—eight trips through the rotation, eight starts for every guy.

The Blue Jays and Yankees are the only teams in the AL East to use just five SPs so far this season and three of New York's presumptive starters (Luis Severino, Frankie Montas, and Carlos Rodon) have yet to pitch this year due to injury. The Red Sox have had eight different starters already, while the Rays are at 11 and counting.

That rotation health is especially valuable for a Toronto team with some questions in the starting depth department. Yosver Zulueta is the only regular starter in the Buffalo Bisons' rotation with an ERA under 5.8. The perceived top depth option out of Spring Training, Zach Thompson, has a 7.79 ERA in eight starts. The organization’s top pitching prospect, Ricky Tiedemann, is currently on the IL with biceps soreness.

So, for at least the next few months, the Blue Jays are reliant on the five guys in Toronto. The Jays will go as far as this rotation can take them. So far, that looks pretty far.