Breaking Down A Blue Jays José Ramírez Trade Package
The fit is natural and obvious. The question has always been the cost.
Acquiring Cleveland Guardians star infielder José Ramírez has been on the Toronto Blue Jays' (and the fan base's) radar for a while now, with reported interest from Shi Davidi and some insight into deadline negotiations from SI's Pat Ragazzo, earlier this offseason.
With two years left at $13 million per and coming off back-to-back seasons with significant MVP votes and a 6.7 bWAR 2021, Ramírez is one of the most valuable players in baseball. The cost would, naturally, be high, with multiple top prospects and MLB roster players being floated around in trade reports and concepts for the last year.
Most recently, The Athletic's Jim Bowden identified trading for Ramírez as the 'first move' the Jays should make post-lockout, and took a stab at a potential trade package. Below, I'll break down that offer and what it would take to bring Ramírez to Toronto.
The Ramírez Offer
Bowden notes the "Guardians could ask the Blue Jays for a package centered on third baseman Jordan Groshans, outfielder Otto Lopez and right-handed pitcher Gunnar Hoglund." Using Baseball America's organizational prospect rankings, this is what that deal would look like:
To Toronto:
INF José Ramírez
To Cleveland:
INF Jordan Groshans (No. 4 in Toronto's system)
SP Gunnar Hoglund (No. 5)
INF Otto Lopez (No. 6)
Bowden notes an offer like this would be "quite a haul" for Ramírez, besting the offer that motivated Cleveland to flip SS Francisco Lindor to the Mets last winter. Jordan Groshans appears on several top prospect lists across the industry and both he and Otto Lopez have progressed into Toronto's upper-minors — an age-range the Guardians targeted when dealing Lindor last offseason. While Hoglund has yet to pitch a minor-league inning for Toronto due to Tommy John surgery, he's seen as a potential fast riser once healthy and facing MilB competition mid to late next year.
While this deal would net the Guardians a combination of upside and industry-consensus top prospects who are near the bigs, it's hard to see targets not first being set higher. Toronto's move of INF Austin Martin and SP Simeon Woods Richardson last season further proves no prospect is ever untouchable, and the names Gabriel Moreno, Orelvis Martinez, and Nate Pearson would certainly come up in negotiations of this magnitude.
It's also important to note reported offers and some trade speculation around Ramírez have often indicated the Guardians, if seriously considering trading him, would target a combination of upper-minors talent and prospects. Can the Blue Jays swing a Ramírez deal without moving a top three prospect or a controllable MLB piece like Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Cavan Biggio, or Alejandro Kirk?
At first glance, acquiring an MVP candidate like Ramírez at a clear position of need without moving Martinez or Moreno would seem like an easily justifiable move. However, these deals always come down to internal valuations and other offers. Perhaps two years of Ramírez, with no guarantee of an extension, isn't deemed worth three of the organizations rising youngsters. Maybe another team pushes the demand even higher. Or maybe, as has seemed to be the case so far, the Guardians elect to keep their best bat in Cleveland.
Mitch Bannon is a baseball reporter for Sports Illustrated covering the Toronto Blue Jays and their minor league affiliates.Twitter: @MitchBannon