© Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
Evaluating What the Blue Jays Have in Kikuchi
Yusei Kikuchi is a fascinating pitcher.
But his three-year, $36-million contract this winter was greeted with a justifiably mixed reaction from the Blue Jays fanbase. The lefty pitches on an extreme spectrum, turning in dazzling high-strikeout performances, then coming unglued by allowing repeated offensive laser shows.
Overall, though, Kikuchi had a career 4.97 ERA (86 ERA+) before the 2022 season, meaning the good and the bad haven’t balanced out the way the lefty would like. The Blue Jays brought in the 30-year-old with hopes of unlocking some hidden potential, so it’s worth watching each of his outings closely.
Let’s look at what we’ve seen through two starts.
Stuff
In 2021, Kikuchi generated a 30.6% whiff rate on his four-seam fastball, 11th best in baseball for pitchers who faced at least 150 batters. When he leans into his fastball usage, he seems to have success.
Take his first start, April 12 versus the Yankees, for example. Kikuchi used just 32% four-seamers, and New York’s big guys took advantage of the slower stuff. On Tuesday against Boston, the left-hander upped the fastball to 56%, and he pitched better because of it.
Despite it being around eight degrees Celsius at Fenway Park, Kikuchi got the heater up as high as 97 mph and the spin rate increased dramatically from his first start.
Perhaps more importantly, a well-established fastball kept Red Sox hitters guessing. Kikuchi throws the four-seamer along with a cutter, a slider, and a split changeup, so when hitters see him throw the heater for strikes, they can’t sit off-speed without the threat of the fastball blowing right by them.
When Kikuchi’s pitches are on, batters get frozen, like Bobby Dalbec here.
From a stuff perspective, Kikuchi’s fastball looked lively, and he used it with confidence. Toronto needs that recipe to continue in his next starts.
Command
Like a lot of guys with explosive stuff, command often makes or breaks a pitcher’s results. On Tuesday, Kikuchi looked like he was headed for disaster with two straight walks to begin the game.
Kikuchi missed with eight of his first nine pitches, yet he managed to reset himself and avoid further damage. His line on the night—three walks through five innings—indicates he missed the zone more than he should have. But Kikuchi, who’s prone to hard contact, it's the misses within the zone that are more concerning, and those mistakes usually come on off-speeds.
Kikuchi basically only threw his cutter to right-handed hitters on Tuesday, and when he used the slider it caught a little too much of the zone. In the third inning to Trevor Story, Kikuchi evened the count with a fastball, then flipped multiple sliders and Story was able to time him up.
Like in his start against New York, the slider was a bit juicy. It didn’t bite him too badly this time, but in at-bats like Story’s, where the hitter was late on an off-speed, a high fastball might’ve been the better play on the following pitch. Sometimes simpler is better.
On a cold night, it would’ve been nice to see Kikuchi continue to pump fastballs in on guys hands or do more of reading guys’ late swings and firing fastballs accordingly, which he did in at-bats versus Xander Bogaerts and Christian Arroyo in the third and fourth innings, respectively.
Overall, a better day for command, though it’s worth watching how hitters handle Kikuchi’s slider going forward.
Composure
First off, Kikuchi played a great game defensively, which is a rare thing from a pitcher in chilly weather. He made five separate plays on comebackers of all varieties, including this slow bouncer where he dropped into a slide to get his shoulders turned and fired to first.
The momentum of an entire game can change on plays like that, so it’s good for Toronto that Kikuchi got to those balls and looked assertive doing so.
Sometimes, though, it looks like Kikuchi overthinks things—his finger-licking debacle with umpire Angel Hernandez exposed a bit of hesitancy in his behavior on the mound. But when the pressure ramped up on Tuesday, Kikuchi dug in.
In a first inning jam, he dropped an excellent slider below the zone and got Rafael Devers to hit into a double play. Kikuchi also worked some magic to escape a first-and-third no-out spot in the fourth inning, retiring the side without surrendering a run.
In big games, good pitchers wiggle their way out of these situations. Kikuchi showed the energy and the stability to navigate these jams—something that should get Blue Jays fans to see what Kikuchi brings to his next outing.
