Will Juan Soto Set the Contract Bar for Blue Jays Guerrero Jr. and Bichette?
Washington Nationals outfielder Juan Soto has yet to play 500 major league games. He's won two silver sluggers, received MVP votes three times, led the league in OBP twice, and been to an All-Star Game.
With three years until free agency, Soto has already positioned himself for a hefty payday. After Soto reportedly turned down a 13-year, $350 million extension this offseason, per ESPN's Enrique Rojas, it's unclear how big that payday will be.
While Soto told ESPN he and his agent, Scott Boras, will take things "year by year," waiting for free agency, if Soto signs, his contract could become the biggest pre-free agency deal in MLB history. The deal could send a cascading precedent down to the rest of baseball's young stars. That precedent will be particularly important for the Blue Jays, who have two of those young phenoms in Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette.
The Soto Comparisons
Turning down a $350 million extension, Soto could be looking to sign the largest contract in baseball history (perhaps the largest guaranteed contract in North American sports history). With more than double the career fWAR of both Bichette and Guerrero, a contract comparison for the Blue Jays stars may seem unnatural, but Soto's deal could at the very least set a ceiling.
The differences are obvious. Albeit in about a season's more playing time, Soto has outperformed both Bichette and Guerrero in rate and counting statistics, and the three all play vastly different positions.
However, similarities are there, too, if you look close enough—especially for Guerrero. Bichette is the only one playing a crucial defensive position, with the bats earning the money for all three. In 2021, Guerrero and Soto posted nearly identical seasons, and both finished second in their respective league's MVP votes.
Projection systems also see the two Jays not that far off of Soto moving forward. In the next three seasons (2022-2024) ZiPS projects Soto to be worth 23.3 WAR, the second-most in baseball, with Guerrero in third at 18.1 and Bichette at 16.3. Soto is still a cut above, but by how much? And, more importantly, what does that look like in dollars and cents?
Fernando Tatis Jr., who recently signed a recent extension, projects to be the most valuable player in baseball over the next three years (23.7 WAR). He and Corey Seager's free-agent payout are other natural comparisons for Toronto's young duo, though maybe still just above, like Soto. However, if the two Jays match or improve on their strong offensive 2021's next year, they will inch closer to these comps, and their price tags will inch closer, too.
Is There A Ceiling?
With three years left of potential arbitration, the important takeaway from the now-rejected Soto offer is the payment during free-agent years. After paying out the three arb years, Soto's $350 million deal would have netted him around $28 million per year for 10 seasons of would-be free agency.
When accounting for the 14-year deal Tatis Jr. inked last year with the San Diego Padres, buying out free agent years at over $30 million, you can see why Soto turned down this offer, presumably aiming higher.
Contracts like Tatis Jr.'s and Seager's help set a path for Blue Jays' extensions, but the ceilings remain a moving target. The thing about contract ceilings is they seem to always go up. A Soto extension could help set a new top-end for Bichette and Guerrero, or maybe the Toronto stars become their own unmatched precedents with a few more seasons of superstar play.
Given the contract comparisons available, the pair could sign today (or at least whenever the lockout ends) and have clear cases for decade-long deals paying out more than $25 mill per year. But, they determine where and when they sign. Guerrero and Bichette can both wait out free agency, earning arbitration contracts while watching other mega-deals set increasingly higher ceilings.
The onus is on the Blue Jays to dangle a number that prevents that.
H/T ESPN's Enrique Rojas
Mitch Bannon is a baseball reporter for Sports Illustrated covering the Toronto Blue Jays and their minor league affiliates.Twitter: @MitchBannon