Here's Why Alek Manoah Is Struggling

Count leverage and slider efficiency are behind Alek Manoah's early issues.

Something’s up with Alek Manoah.

The 25-year-old hasn't been himself since Opening Day. His 4.83 ERA and 5.5 BB/9 are clear signs that he has been wobbly this season. However, if you go a little deeper, you'll find more detailed explanations for why his secondary pitches aren't as sharp and why he's allowing an unusually high number of baserunners to reach.

Here’s what’s behind Manoah’s early season struggles.

Payoff Pitches

At first, I explored the idea of Manoah falling behind too often. Surely, if a pitcher is walking too many hitters, it’s because he’s starting behind in the count, right?

Well, with Manoah, that’s only a small ingredient in a larger problem. Through eight starts, Manoah has tossed first-pitch strikes to 58% of batters. That’s not great, but it's also not terrible. It’s down from 2022 (62%) but on par with his rookie season in 2021 (57%).

The far greater issue is about how Manoah pitches when he falls behind. This season, the big fella has been almost hopeless when hitters work a count advantage, and it’s not necessarily because he’s allowing rocket line drives during every at-bat.

Check out Manoah’s strikeout-to-walk ratios in specific counts.

This is very telling. Any pitcher will have a harder time once they fall behind, but with Manoah this season, a count deficit equates to a nearly insurmountable obstacle. He just hasn’t been able to battle back. And when he establishes a two-strike count, he hasn’t been able to put guys away.

So, why can’t Manoah finish batters off? I’ll show you.

Trouble With The Slider

Blue Jays fans grew accustomed to watching clips of Manoah’s frisbee slider turn All-Star hitters into bumbling broad swordsmen at the dish. Instead, in 2023, the breaking ball has yielded a feeding frenzy.

Chart from Baseball Savant.

A year ago, Manoah’s slider generated a -18 run value, per Baseball Savant, making it the 18th-best pitch in baseball. This year, that same slider is at +11 run value, the second-worst pitch in MLB (only Kyle Muller’s four-seamer is worse). Yikes.

Just about every graph you filter the slider through nets some ugly results. But it’s a bit of a mystery to sort out why the slider’s been so hittable. His spin rate is down a touch, but the movement metrics are in line with 2022 (though I’m skeptical of that since, visually, his slider looks less crisp).

Image from Baseball Savant

This chart from Manoah’s Tuesday start versus the Phillies reveals he grooved a few sliders, but it’s not as damning as I imagined it would be. My early conclusion is that hitters have been able to exploit count leverage and sit on specific pitches. And if the slider has even marginally less zest to it, major-league hitters will take advantage.

Pitching Philosophy

It’s easy to forget this is just Manoah’s third big-league season. The Florida native raced through two spectacular seasons, set a very high standard for expectations, and is now laboring a bit. Again, it’s just an eight-start sample size, and I’m sure Manoah is working very hard behind the scenes, but perhaps a philosophical adjustment could help.

Maybe Alejandro Kirk sets his target closer to the heart of the plate to help Manoah get ahead? Maybe the battery decides to pitch backward more? Or Kirk encourages Manoah to go straight for the kill on 0-2 and 1-2 counts instead of wasting pitches? These are just theories.

Bottom line, the stuff isn’t there right now, but that’s not a doomsday proclamation. Manoah is an exceptionally talented pitcher who’s tangled with much deeper adversity than a lackluster breaking ball. The Jays ace will ultimately regain his form, but moving ahead, it's important to pay attention to count leverage and slider effectiveness.