Blue Jays Hoping for a Guerrero Jr. Hot Streak After 100 Homer Milestone

In Toronto's win over Tampa Bay on Wednesday, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit his 100th career homer.

John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was sitting on 99 for two weeks.

With 14 games since his last homer, the Blue Jays first baseman was in the driest spell of his season, an undeniable September funk. But then, with a single ripping swing, he snapped the skid, and nabbed his 100th career homer, too.

"It feels pretty good," Guerrero Jr. said through an interpreter after the game. "Obviously when you're just one home run away from 100 you get a little bit anxious. But it's so great and I'm very happy especially that I hit it here at home."

The encore to Guerrero's 2021 coming-out party has been an inconsistent campaign. He's traded months of the elite batting we've come to expect with stretches of struggle—.900 OPS in April and June, but .600 in May and September. His most recent schneid saw his OPS tumble from .855 to .824 in the first two weeks of September with 11 strikeouts dwarfing his lone walk. 

The signs for a course correction have been there in recent days, with a seven-game hitting streak entering Wednesday and four doubles in his previous five games. Manager John Schneider pointed out the positive signs before Wednesday's game and Guerrero's early homer didn't come as a surprise to the skipper.

 "I think it's just a matter of time until he's putting that jacket on again," Schneider said before the game.

Reaching the 100-homer milestone has been on Guerrero's mind for weeks, the slugger admitted, with club staff reminding him before almost every game how close he was to the mark. As Guerrero Jr. approached the dugout after his first-inning smash, the 23-year-old raised both hands to the crowd and received his jacket with a weight off his shoulders.

It'll take more than just one homer to declare Guerrero back to his peak powers, though. While the lack of power this month was concerning, the bigger issues lie with swing decisions. The often eagle-eyed Guerrero swung at 42.5% of pitches outside the strike zone to start September, the 16th-highest mark in baseball. Chasing pitches down has led to an increasing ground ball rate and hasn't given pitchers a reason to challenge him. Guerrero's been trying to attack pitches a little bit higher in the zone, he said, but the results haven't always mirrored the process.

The first baseman's second at-bat on Wednesday encapsulated his current state, seeing four pitches outside the zone in a bases-loaded situation and unable to work a walk. The three Jays on base looked in at the righty as he took a first-pitch strike (below the zone) and stepped out of the box—not his pitch, despite the umpire's mistaken call. It was a good take, one he's focusing on right now, but three pitches later he still chased out of the zone for a groundout.

That out was productive nonetheless, scoring the eventual game-winning run as Guerrero legged out a fielder's choice, though. Homers or not, he's a pivotal fixture in Toronto's lineup, driving in almost 13% of their runs this year. It's no coincidence Guerrero's three best hitting months have been the Jays' three best months by wins this year.

The Jays have managed an 11-3 start to September despite a skidding Guerrero, thanks to some breakouts around him in the batting order. But with the 100 homer milestone checked off and many more to come, a Guerrero hot streak could take Toronto even higher.

"I think he's really close to breaking out," Schneider said.