What the Toronto Blue Jays' Path to the Postseason Looks Like
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The Toronto Blue Jays did not have the series they would've liked against the Detroit Tigers at the start of the week, but it ended with a 5-1 win on Wednesday afternoon in Rogers Centre.
The bottom of the lineup with Ernie Clement and Myles Straw came through while Max Scherzer delivered five innings of one-run ball which was followed up by a shutout bullpen.
The win moved the Blue Jays to 76-77 on the season and are just ahead of the Baltimore Orioles in the division by one game as of Thursday. The race for the final wild card spot in the American League has gotten extremely close with more teams now in the mix.
With just over a week left of the regular season, all nine remaining games for the Blue Jays are basically playoff games. The three remaining series against the Texas Rangers, Orioles and Cincinnati Reds are obviously the most important of the season.
As of early Thursday, the Blue Jays are 1.5 games out of the last wild card spot that is currently occupied by the Chicago White Sox, who are 77-75.
Toronto's Path to Playoffs
The Rangers at 76-76 are half a game ahead of the Jays in the wild card standings. Keep in mind that the Cleveland Guardians currently have the lead in the AL Central with a 78-75 record. They were in the wild card race earlier this week.
It's likely that the AL Central lead will keep flip-flopping between the White Sox and Guardians as the regular season winds up and the second place team will become the biggest obstacle in the way of Toronto sneaking into the postseason.
The path for the Blue Jays to make it first relies on winning the upcoming series against the Rangers. Toronto already has lost the head-to-head this year thanks to its four-game sweep in June. It will be important to at least win this three-game series to get the superior record.
The Jays are already 6-4 against the Orioles this year and will need to then take care of business on the road at the start of next week. That will also likely remove Baltimore out of playoff contention. The Reds inside Rogers Centre next weekend is a winnable last series of the year.
A 6-3 record to get to 82-80 will give Toronto a great chance of sneaking in. Anything below that mark, and it doesn't seem too likely. A 7-2 mark to go 83-79 could very well do the trick. A sweep in one of the next three series can make that possible.
Besides having a highly successful end to the year, the Jays will also need help from either the Guardians or White Sox.
Chicago has a very easy schedule left against non-contenders, while Cleveland faces three games against the Boston Red Sox. The Guardians have also lost the head-to-head vs the White Sox. If the Guardians lose their Red Sox series, that would be massive.
The Jays just have a 27.3 percent chance to make the postseason, according to FanGraphs.
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Maanav Gupta primarily covers Houston sports for On SI. He graduated from the University of Houston in the summer of 2025 with his bachelor’s in journalism and a minor in Spanish. Gupta spent three years at the student newspaper, The Daily Cougar, and also covered the 2025 Final Four and National Championship. He also has his own YouTube channel, Maanav’s Sports Talk, where he has interviewed professional athletes and broadcasters like Jose Altuve, Jeremy Peña, J.J. Watt, and Jim Nantz. Gupta has been writing about the Astros for various publications since 2024. You can find Gupta on X, Instagram and TikTok @MGSportsTalk.
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