Atlanta Braves 2024 Roster Projection 1.5

The Atlanta Braves have players loudly making their cases for a roster spot for Opening Day

The Atlanta Braves are starting in a pretty good place with their roster construction for the 2024 season.

Having returned nine of their top ten hitters, 2023's #1 run-scoring offense should be just as potent in 2024 as it was last year. Adding veteran lefthander Chris Sale strengthens a rotation that was decimated by injury last season but still returns multiple All-Stars and last year's strikeout leader in Spencer Strider.

But there are questions to be answered about the 5th starter, the configuration of the bench, and the pecking order of the bullpen as we head to the season opener in Philadelphia on March 28th. Braves Today will be projecting who makes the Opening Day roster, updating as needed throughout the Grapefruit League schedule. 

See previous version here: 1.0

(Ground rules: Yes, Atlanta's played in like six spring training games. Everything's a small sample size overreaction. Additionally, we're assuming there are no external adds to the roster between now and Opening Day, when in reality you could see several players that are released by other organizations added after cutdown day and so none of this may even happen. That's baseball!)

Position players

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Let's go through the starters real quick, because there's no real questions among this group (other than what order to bat them in):

Outfield (3): Ronald Acuña Jr, Michael Harris II, Jarred Kelenic
Catcher (2): Sean Murphy, Travis d'Arnaud
Third Base (1): Austin Riley
Shortstop (1): Orlando Arcia
Second Base (1): Ozzie Albies
First Base (1): Matt Olson
Designated Hitter/Emergency first baseman (1): Marcell Ozuna

Again, no real surprises here. We may have even seen the Opening Day lineup earlier this week! 

Rotation

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Similar to the lineup, most of this is already known and the only questions are about the order in which they'll get their first start in 2024:

Starting Pitchers (5): RHP Spencer Strider, LHP Max Fried, RHP Charlie Morton, LHP Chris Sale, RHP Reynaldo López

We discussed this in the first version of the roster projection, but it's easier to move a stretched-out López to the bullpen than it is to start stretching him out during the season for a move to the rotation. Bryce Elder, a 2023 All-Star, is relegated to making a 2nd consecutive Opening Day start for AAA Gwinnett in this scenario. 

But since the Braves have used a minimum of 10 "true starters" every season since 2020 - by "true starters", we're subtracting relievers working in an "opener" capacity - and Atlanta's undoubtedly going to be mindful of the workload for veterans Chris Sale (coming off injury) and Charlie Morton (old), Elder's likely to be one of the first pitchers brought up from Gwinnett to make starts in 2024. 

Bench

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Locks (2): Catcher Travis d'Arnaud (who is really more of a co-starter and is listed above with the starters) and INF Luis Guillorme. 

Guillorme signed a $1M deal this offseason with the knowledge that he'd be one of the primary pieces of Atlanta's bench - the Braves used him at shortstop yesterday behind AJ Smith-Shawver, because if Guillorme can capably finish a game at shortstop, it opens things up for the rest of the bench.

Favorites (2): OF Forrest Wall, INF/OF Luke Williams  

Wall's a fixture on this projection (and absolutely RAKING right now in Grapefruit League action.) Williams is the new inclusion to the projection, winning the 4th bench spot thanks to his defensive versatility and underrated speed. 

Williams can capably cover both corner infield and outfield spots, as well as second base (and even has 44 MLB innings at shortstop), and that versatility is useful for a roster that might have only Guillorme as an infield backup ahead of him. Marcell Ozuna has been playing first base in spring and Travis d'Arnaud made 16 starts in his career at first, all with Tampa Bay in 2019, but Williams' ability to go almost anywhere on the diamond gives him the nod over other positionally limited options like J.P. Martinez (only outfield) or David Fletcher and Andrew Velazquez (primarily infield). 

 

Bullpen

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Locks (5): RHP Raisel Iglesias (closer), LHP AJ Minter, RHP Pierce Johnson, LHP Aaron Bummer, RHP Joe Jiménez

The rest (3): RHP Jackson Stephens (long), LHP Dylan Lee, RHP Ken Giles

Injured list: LHP Tyler Matzek (he warned us this was possible over a week ago, folks)

The big change here for us is swapping the youngster Daysbel Hernández with the veteran Giles, for two reasons. 

The first is that Hernández has options remaining, and so can be sent to AAA Gwinnett to start the season. (Him giving up one run on four hits with one walk and no strikeouts in his first two innings in spring doesn't really play into this, surprisingly, but it also doesn't make an emphatic case for his inclusion.)

The second is that Giles, who doesn't have options, made his Grapefruit League debut against his former team (the Philadelphia Phillies, who drafted him in 2011 and promoted him to the majors in 2014) and struck out the side, consisting of Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and Alec Bohm. 

Things like that surely make an impression on a coaching staff that is looking to build the best bullpen they can and doesn't, as of now, have that "veteran former closer" role identified. Kirby Yates was that guy for Atlanta last season, finishing third on the roster in saves after going five-for-eight in 2023, but he's now with the Texas Rangers after seeing Atlanta decline his 2024 option. 

AAA Gwinnett Rotation

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Just for fun, let's project the Opening Day rotation for AAA Gwinnett, as well, because after last season's injury struggles to the pitching staff, there are a lot of options down there that we'll see in Atlanta at some point this season: 

Starters (6): RHP Bryce Elder, RHP AJ Smith-Shawver, LHP Dylan Dodd, RHP Huascar Ynoa, RHP Darius Vines, RHP Allan Winans

Injured list (3): RHP Ian Anderson, RHP Penn Murfee (reliever), LHP Angel Perdomo (reliever)

Yes, we're leaving off Hurston Waldrep. No, I don't know where to put him. The top six in the rotation are all pitchers that either pitched in MLB last season or in 2022 (Ynoa). Waldrep made one AAA start last season, at the end of the minor league season, and quite possibly only did it in AAA Gwinnett because the AA Mississippi season had ended. 

Waldrep's in spring training as a non-roster invitee, but he's one of the only young pitchers we have yet to see throw in a Grapefruit League contest. As of now, if there's one starter you're sending to AA Mississippi to get the ball every five days from the above group, all signs point to Waldrep. 

At the same time, it's entirely possible that, given the additional roster spots at each level in the minors, that Waldrep sticks to the AAA Gwinnett roster and someone works in a piggyback capacity with another starter so that you can give seven pitchers a starter's workload on a weekly basis. 

(Darius Vines spent some time last season working as a MLB reliever with the intention of starting him if he not used the few days prior, so there's a precedent here.)

How would you configure the Braves roster? Let us know!