Braves Can't Find Offense, Dropping Finale and Series to Nationals on Thursday Night

The Atlanta Braves are 27th in runs scored over the last thirty days

Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Ray Kerr (58) in the dugout before a game against the Washington Nationals at Truist Park. / Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Braves dropped the series finale against the Washington Nationals 3-1 in Truist Park on Thursday night to officially lose the series three games to one. 

Here’s what you need to know about from the contest.

Another short outing for Ray Kerr

It’s a bit confusing, honestly. 

The lefty, making his second start of the season, struck out seven in just 3.2 innings thanks to a wicked curveball that generated thirteen whiffs (in forty pitches) and came in at almost 50% strikes. 

Ray Kerr, Dirty 83mph Curveball. 😨 pic.twitter.com/XEoJE9FywF

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 31, 2024

But Kerr also allowed three runs on five hits and two walks, getting only six strikes (and no whiffs) from his twenty-two fastballs thrown and seeing four of the five Nationals hits off of the heater, including the back-to-back doubles in the 2nd inning that scored all three of the earned runs off of him. 

The velocity is good, with the fastball averaging 94.6 and touching 97.5, but they almost all got hit. It’s perplexing, same as the decision to make him into a starter instead of a long man out of the pen. Yes, starting Kerr allowed the team to continue to give additional rest to Reynaldo López and Chris Sale, but was needing to use the bullpen for more than half the game worth it? 

Atlanta’s offense continues to be quiet

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before - Braves hitters got quality contact, hitting the ball hard, but didn’t see it pay off on the scoreboard. Atlanta’s lineup had nine hard-hit balls (exit velocity of 95 mph or higher), but got only five hits and one run in this one. 

All but one of Atlanta’s batted balls over 100 mph were outs, including two with expected batting averages of .570 or better. Logically, continuing to absolutely crush baseballs should start to pay off for Atlanta’s offense given the league’s performance on batted balls above and below 95 mph: 

​​Batted balls > 95 mph = league wide batting average of .506
Batted balls < 95 mph = league wide batting average of .221

That doesn’t make things better, though - this team’s offense has been downright bad for about a month now. Over the last 30 days, Atlanta’s .669 OPs is 20th in baseball and their 89 runs scored is 27th out of 30 teams. They’ve been held to two or fewer runs twelve times and three or fewer runs seventeen times.  

When a team built on power isn’t hitting for power, you have a problem. 

MLB writer Jason Foster encapsulated the historic struggles of the 2024 offense in a way that might bring up some...rough memories for long-time Braves fans.

If you want a comparison to more recent bad Braves teams:

2015 Braves: 3.54 runs per game
2016 Braves: 4.03 runs per game

I'm still among those who believe this can't possibly last in 2024, but the sample size keeps getting bigger.

— Jason Foster (@ByJasonFoster) May 31, 2024

 

What’s next for the Atlanta Braves?

The Braves are starting a weekend series against the visiting Oakland Athletics tomorrow night. Reynaldo López, pushed back from tonight, is facing off against lefty JP Sears. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:20 PM ET.