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Braves Top Prospect's Start to Season Better Than You Think

At first glance, you'd think Drake Baldwin was struggling in his early games as a Major Leaguer. Beyond luck, that's far from the case

Harrison Smajovits

The hype around this prospect will show in the stats in due time
The hype around this prospect will show in the stats in due time / Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images
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It’s been a tough start to the season at the plate for the Atlanta Braves, especially for top prospect Drake Baldwin. 

On the surface, he’s 0-for-7 with a walk in eight trips to the plate. Without a trained eye and some advanced stats, it would be easy to get the impression that he’s struggling. Perhaps that’s only true when considering his struggle with luck. 

He’s been hitting the ball hard and hasn’t been able to find a hole. Here are his five hardest hit balls, the result of the ball in play and what the analytics say his expected batting average is. 

  • 96.4 mph, line out (.330 xBA)
  • 99.1 mph, fly out (.490 xBA)
  • 101.6 mph, ground out (.460 xBA)
  • 103.7 mph, fly out (.810 xBA)
  • 109.6 mph, ground out (.420 xBA)

Let’s not forget that he took Padres' lefty Yuki Matsui deep to dead center field, only to be robbed of his first career home run by Jackson Merrill. 

It’s frustrating to do everything right and still have to keep trotting back to the bench after every at bat. However, to his credit, he’s keeping up his approach. If he keeps hitting the ball as well as he has been to start the year, he’s going to start finding a hole. They’re going to drop eventually. 

For what it’s worth, it's a sign that the success in Triple-A and during Spring Training wasn’t due to weaker competition. His strikeout rate is technically higher right now, but that could even out as his sample size grows.

In 17 Spring Training games, Baldwin batted .286/.400/.333 with two extra-base hits and four RBIs. The power didn’t show up in his slugging, but it’s showing up in the exit velocity. It’ll show up elsewhere in due time. 

The Braves are back on Saturday night, looking to get back in their series with the San Diego Padres. They search for their first win as a team while Baldwin looks to get his first career knock. 

First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. and will be televised on Fox. 

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Harrison Smajovits
HARRISON SMAJOVITS

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